Comments on: NWS: Ike threatens “certain death” in coastal areas

By: brujotejano

brujotejano — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:30:41 +0000

If you compare the NHC satellite loop to the track points as of 9:24 CDT, it appears that Ike is south of the track points and heading WNW. This is a change from the recent actual tracks that have been north of the track points. This is not all good,and is of great interest as we hunker down in central Houston and pray for our timber farm in Newton County that was whacked by Rita. Thanks for your great work Brendan

By: baconboy

baconboy — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:29:03 +0000

While a strike to the east of Galveston would be an improvement, it’s not completely good news. The south side of the island is mostly protected by the seawall (unless waves top 17 feet, in which case all bets are off), but the island is built on a slope downward from there, so that the north side of the island is just a few feet over sea level (I lived about midway between the north and south sides). The problem comes if a big storm surge comes through Galveston Bay and when the winds change direction the water gets pushed from north back toward the south. As I recall from reading about the 1900 storm, this is what happened, which meant they got storm surge going in and coming out. Happy to be corrected about the facts of 1900 or the dynamics of reverse storm surge, but that’s my recollection.

By: Houblog » Blog Archive » Almost Done, and Roundup

Houblog » Blog Archive » Almost Done, and Roundup — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 23:59:12 +0000

[...] Andrew over at Brendan’s site remarked: Ugh. My coworker has elderly parents that live right on the water’s edge in Clear Lake, [...]

By: SteveSadlov

SteveSadlov — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 23:47:55 +0000

Check out Greg’s comment above. The storm’s center is well to the south of him, and he is barely in the right front quadrant. The reach of the surge is huge.

By: Ubu Roi

Ubu Roi — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 23:46:35 +0000

Andrew: this is my experience also. People are riding it out who have no business doing so. I fear the death toll is going to be ugly, and the experience of Rita will be why.

By: Alan Sullivan

Alan Sullivan — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:41:46 +0000

Yes, the surge will be major — and disproportionate to the storm’s strength (or weakness). There is a very large envelope of low pressure, and a large fetch. I remarked on the strong and persistent winds here in S Florida, while Ike passed far away. Worst effects may be well NE of the landfall.

By: Steve Sadlov

Steve Sadlov — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:35:02 +0000

Allow me to emphasize this. The fetch of these winds is immense. The structure of this storm more closely resembles that of a major closed low winter Gulf of Alaska storm than it does a classical Gulf of Mexico hurricane. When such a storm strikes in the mid Pacific Coast, levees in places like SF Bay, and smaller estuaries are slightly overtopped. Given our very steep coastal profile and very narrow continental shelf, this speaks of a massive overall volume of uplifted water. Now, consider a similar storm, with a much, much gentler coastal profile and much wider continental shelf. Even if there is weakening, and further asymmetry, there may still be significant surge related inundation. Do not mess with this folks.

By: Nathan

Nathan — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:29:27 +0000

Anyone put any stock in the HWRF solution? It has Ike weakening to tropical storm strength within the next 12 hours, with a 25 mb rise in central pressure to boot. That’s rather drastic, of course, but what factors does HWRF think important that the other models don’t? Dry air intrusion on the west side of the cyclone, maybe? Or is it just a bad initialization?

By: Greg

Greg — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:29:10 +0000

We are getting some minor flooding even south of New Orleans outside the levees. Ike has shut down power line repair in the flooding areas.

Water is even about 3 feet deep on France Rd. in New Orleans, outside the Industrial Canal levee.

Not much rain though.

Eric Berger has storm surge maps online for various landfall scenarios in Houston.

The pine treed areas around Houston may see power outages for much longer than a week if the storm hits head on at a Cat 3 landfall. A lot of emergency line repair is still tied up in south Louisiana.

By: Alan Sullivan

Alan Sullivan — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:07:33 +0000

5 PM advisory is very interesting. The tiny core and eye has vanished. We have a very large but eyeless hurricane. It is also asymmetrical, restricted on the west. Not too impressive.