[NOTE: I've added Houston TV links to the sidebar at right, including another four-streams-in-one page, just like during Gustav. ... I've also added NOAA's tidal gauges page, which will be worth watching as the surge rolls in.]
Infrared “rainbow” satellite view, 9:45 PM EDT. Live loop here.
Ike’s surface wind field as of 11:00 PM EDT. Full graphic here.
The National Hurricane Center’s 11:00 PM EDT discussion indicates that eyewall contraction is not imminent, and suggests that forecasters no longer expect much strengthening of Hurricane Ike’s winds before landfall:
IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH…SIZE…AND STRUCTURE THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL…BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE. INSTEAD…DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS [I.E., THE OUTER EYEWALL] IS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE…NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. . . . THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS…PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING…AND NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD…SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.
Possible, but not probable. The official forecast brings Ike’s winds up to 110 mph — high-end Category 2 — at landfall on Galveston Island in the wee hours of Saturday morning.
I gotta hand it to Alan Sullivan: he was right, it seems, about Ike. High winds are not going to be the primary issue. But, as I wrote below, the storm surge will still be enormous. Coastal residents, do not treat this storm like a typical Category 2! The Gulf of Mexico is about to temporarily reclaim a large chunk of prime Texas real estate. If you’re in a surge zone, this is no time to hunker down and complacently recall the names of all the previous storms you’ve successfully weathered, or confidently assert that Ike will turn right, like Rita did. (It might. But you don’t know that. No one does.) This is the time to move inland, to higher ground. Get out of Ike’s way!
P.S. Eric Berger has more.
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11 Comments
1. Houstonian:Thanks for the updates. We are preparing to shelter in place near downtown and hope for the best – a landfall east of Baytown. Please keep up the good work – I look to you and Eric Berger for the best, “non-hysterical” Ike information.
Sep 11, 2008 - 8:22 pm 2. Steve Sadlov:The tide at Galveston Pleasure Pier is now 2-1/2 feet above normal for this hour of this day. This is but the beginning. It is only going to go up from here. If you are anywhere near there, and are not at least 30 feet above sea level at ground, and are not in a specially constructed structure meant to withstand inundation and battering waves, get out NOW! Your routes of egress may be blocked by morning.
Sep 11, 2008 - 8:50 pm 3. JKB:If you’re not going to leave, at least put a hatchet in the attic. Don’t make the searchers pull another family out of the attic with claw marks on the roof sheathing. That happened in Mississippi during Katrina.
Also, dead dumb-asses are difficult for searchers but dead dumb-asses with kids tied to their belt are real hard on the men and women who have to haul the bodies in their trucks. The kids didn’t have a choice.
If your not going to leave, do the searchers a favor and send the kids inland. Notice, I didn’t say rescuers. By the time the the SAR teams can get in after the water recedes, it will be search and recovery, no rescue, no CNN, just pulling the bodies from the trees and attics.
Sep 11, 2008 - 8:58 pm 4. ScottF:Another link that might be of interest…
http://www.galveston.com/webcams
Sep 11, 2008 - 9:07 pm 5. Shreela:This house withstood Alicia and Carla strength winds. Hubby did a GPS elevation check, and we’re 32 feet above sea level. We’ll ride out the storm in the central hall with supply boxes next to us (just in case a tree falls on the roof). The ladder to the attic is in the central hall, so we’ll be able to climb it if necessary. TS Allison is the only time this house had water in it; it was a bit over my ankles for about two hours, but I did have some water a lot longer until I could sweep it out).
We’ll be turning off power before water comes in the house to avoid a fire from electrical shorts — a house burned down one street away from me during TS Allison, and a mother and son were electrocuted putting their TV to higher ground further north in Houston.
I set up and tested twitter to receive text messages, but who knows if it will work after the storm. At least my family and friends might be able to hear how we fared a little sooner, once we get through. I’m Shreela at twitter, I unfollowed everyone so only my tweets show.
If it goes cat4, I might consider worry-nagging hubby to evac to a shelter, if they’re not full. Staying at a shelter unnerves me almost as much as hurricanes, so it would have to be a really bad hurricane.
Gotta go put more water and supplies in containers. Seeya in a few days/weeks 8^)
Sep 11, 2008 - 10:53 pm 6. PenguinSix:CERTAIN DEATH
That’s the phrase being used today on CNN and whatnot.
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:00 am 7. Brendan Loy:Yeah. They sent out a “breaking news” alert with the “certain death” warning last night at 10:10 PM. Odd, considering the NWS statement was actually released at 2:20 PM. Not exactly “breaking”… but I guess the cable news networks don’t typically look to National Weather Service statements for their latest news. Besides, they were probably too busy debating whether Sarah Palin is the pig or the lipstick to pay attention to something so trivial as a potential mini-tsunami along the Texas coast…
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:20 am 8. Shreela:Hi again. I found sources to check my zip code elevation, and my exact elevation (well supposedly). Zip code has me at 38, and the other one that let me click my neighborhood said 36.
So revised plans are to include charged up power tools in our central hall supplies, along with a few of the gallons and gallons of water in the fridge/freezer. I doubt it will get over our heads in our house, but at least we’ll have a dry place to store our stuff (assuming our roof isn’t ripped off, but like I posted earlier, this house has been through Alicia and Carla, that’s somewhat reassuring).
Most coastal people have evac’d already, and now the surge has covered some roads too much to evac from some locations. Since the evac was mandatory, rescue personal is relieved of any liability of those that chose not to evac.
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:22 am 9. Ubu Roi:Brendan: no, the media was trying to figure out how to blame it on Bush. (Heh.)
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:25 am 10. The Monster:They can’t help themselves. Your candidate goes on Letterman, and you have to use the clip. That didn’t take any effort. Explaining the notion of Ike’s IKE is too much trouble for Journalism majors, who probably think Calculus is a Greek god.
A “mere Cat 2″ hurricane can’t possibly be bigger news than that, at least until they can figure out a way that the dead people who refused to evacuate are somehow FEMA’s (and therefore McSame’s) fault.
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:26 am 11. justin:I hope everyone in it’s path got out..we are experiencing much higher storm surges than was anticipated along the La. coast but esp along the northshore of Lake Ponchatrain (Slidell,Madisonville and only 1 mile from where I live in Mandeville)..the NWS underestimated the surge in our area so it is likely they have done so for the TX coast as well…let’s hope not. Sheera take it from someone who knows…trees can DESTROY a home. several of my neighbors had their homes completly cut in half/severly damaged during Katrina by falling pines and that was on the weak side of a 120 mph storm. If people had been in some of those homes they would have undoubtly been killed. Also, being w/o running water/gas/food for a week or more really sucks. I hope you stocked up. BTW, even if you have city water your lift stations that carry the raw sewerage to the treatment plant will be down if elec goes out..in my neighborhood after Gustav 30 hours w/o power was long enough for people using the water supply to back raw sewage from the lift stations all the way into peoples sinks/bathtubs/toilets ect…one of my neighbors across the street is replacing master bedroom carpet because of the back up. I’m not trying to scare you I am simply telling you what happens during the direct aftermath of a storm. You guys have not been through one in some time and I think you really don’t know what it can be like if a major one comes along. Alot of people in New Orleans in St. Bernard Parish stayed as well because they “didn’t get water during Betsy.” After lashing themselves to telephone poles and barely making it to boats with their lives they think a lot different now. I work in New Orleans/St Bernard in sales so I have heard many first hand stories. I hope you don’t have one to tell when all this is over for you. Good luck.
Sep 12, 2008 - 12:41 pm