The National Hurricane Center’s 5:00 PM EDT public advisory and discussion are out. The headline on the advisory is: “IKE’S FURY AIMED AT THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST.” The forecast track continues to aim the storm just to the left of Galveston Bay, with landfall around 2:00 AM EDT.
If that track verifies — and there’s precious little time remaining for a rightward course shift — the massive storm surge, more typical of a Category 4 than a Category 2, will devastate Galveston Island, killing many of the people who have foolishly chosen to stay. The surge will cause major damage to both residential and industrial areas in low-lying portions of the Houston metro area, and well up the coast to Port Arthur and beyond. All told, this freak storm could be one of the worst hurricanes in American history.
In Eric Berger’s live chat, the Houston Chronicle hurricane reporter was asked, “How long will Galveston be closed?” He responded: “If the storm comes in west of Galveston Bay, for a long, long time. I do not believe the island will be the same as we have known it unless the storm comes in over Bolivar Peninsula or further east.”
Meanwhile, Alan Sullivan (who has a new post up, BTW) wrote in comments on his blog: “It’s the industry of Houston that I’m worried about. Not only could we be looking at the most expensive hurricane in history, but the destruction of energy infrastructure could put the nation in real difficulty. We have refused to build infrastructure for many years; now we may lose some of what we have.” This from a guy who’s been saying that Ike is “overhyped.” If Sullivan is right, today’s gas panics may be just the beginning.
I’m about to head home from work, and will be away from my computer for a few hours. I will try to keep approving comments as they come in, but I may fall a bit behind. I’ll be back later this evening, and will stay up until landfall, liveblogging the storm. In the mean time, follow the numerous links at right for the latest on Ike.
And say a prayer for the people in Ike’s path. The ocean is coming.
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17 Comments
1. Austin:Looks like the SPR is going to be damaged as well.
2/3 of the capacity lies in the surge path.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve
Bryan Mound - Freeport, Texas. 20 caverns with a storage capacity of 254 million barrels (40,400,000 m3) with a drawdown capacity of 1.5 million barrels (240,000 m3) per day.
Big Hill - Winnie, Texas. Has a capacity of 160 million barrels (25,000,000 m3) with a drawdown capacity of 1.1 million barrels (170,000 m3) per day. This facility is planned to be expand by 250 million barrels (40,000,000 m3) with a new drawdown capacity of 1.5 million barrels (240,000 m3) per day.
Sep 12, 2008 - 2:42 pm 2. dap64:In response to “how long will Galveston Island be down?” question you mentioned from Eric’s chat: During hurricane Opal Navarre Island and Pensacola Beach in FL endured a similar flood. Although they had no sea wall to protect from the frontal assault, the water and power infrastructure was completely wiped out - and I’ve recently heard on local Houston TV that the city/county officials expect Galveston’s infrastructure to be similarly destroyed. This is not a matter of simply stringing power lines back up - as will be necessary inland. Sewer and water lines will need to be completely re-laid (if possible). Parts of Navarre Island had no power and water restored for up to a year or more, and in many, many areas along the Gulf Coast there, the damage is still horribly present more than 10 years on. Channels scoured through the barrier islands are still barely above the high tide line. Highways, bridges and causeways that were ‘bulldozed’ by Opal (and later Ivan) took years to replace. It’s also important to note, as Dr. Masters does, that the seawall only protects against some amount of the frontal inland thrust of the water - when it begins to flow outward again the wall will not impede the rapid outflow of the same water. Hope and pray for the best but, in the worst case, the barrier islands in the path of greatest surge may be significantly altered for the foreseeable future.
Sep 12, 2008 - 2:52 pm 3. mesquito:My father is a Texas retired Texas harbor pilot. He says the storm, which seems to be aimed at the Houston Channel could be pretty bad. First, shutting down refineries is bad enough. The equipment cools, and when you restart, lots of stuff starts to break as it heats. Secondly, there will be heavy silting across the mouth of the Galveston jetty, and up and down the whole channel. Dredging will take months before tankers can enter at draft.
Sep 12, 2008 - 3:03 pm 4. SteveSadlov:The situation along the coast between Galveston and Morgan City is deteriorating rapidly. The residuals have suddenly started to climb. This massive dome of elevated seas will work its way along the coast toward the central Texas coast, over the next 12 or fewer hours. We are witnesses to history in the making, and, America’s ultimate lesson, to date, regarding our pathetic sea storm defenses, and, the stupidity of dense development in poorly or non protected areas of low lying, shallow profile coastlines.
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:22 pm 5. Vodkapundit » I (Don’t) Like Ike:[...] by Stephen Green on 12 Sep 2008 at 05:24 pm Brendan Loy: Alan Sullivan (who has a new post up, BTW) wrote in comments on his blog: “It’s the industry [...]
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:24 pm 6. Andrew Garland:Emergency Preparation: No Price Gouging Here
–> We’re Honorable, So We Don’t Have Any Stuff
It had been raining for three days. Jim went to Sam’s Hardware Store in town. There were deep road puddles everywhere.
Jim: Hi Sam. I’m looking for a good water pump.
My basement is drowning.
Sam: Hi Jim. I’m sorry to tell you that I had three
WP-ABQ pumps in stock before this rain. A pretty
good value at $140 too. But, they sold out.
Jim: I’m in trouble. There is 3″ of water in my
basement and it is rising slowly. I really need that pump.
Sam: I feel for you. My last pump sold to a guy who
didn’t need it now, but wanted to be safe. At the standard
price of $140, he decided not to wait.
… Continued at EasyOpinions.blogspot.com
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:24 pm 7. Alan Kellogg:http://easyopinions.blogspot.com/2008/07/no-price-gouging-here.html
What’s the most likely track after Texas/Louisiana?
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:35 pm 8. Live Blogging Hurricane Ike From The Woodlands, Texas « Blog Entry « Dr. Melissa Clouthier:[...] will. It will be easier to read, if you’re coming back. From Instapundit: MORE ON IKE FROM BRENDAN LOY, who says a storm surge catastrophe is likely. Meanwhile in Knoxville we’ve got [...]
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:40 pm 9. ZEITGEIST:[...] ON IKE FROM BRENDAN LOY, who says a storm surge catastrophe is likely. Meanwhile in Knoxville we’ve got storm-generated gas shortages, but there are no lines. [...]
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:57 pm 10. Hucbald:My freshman year of college was at Texas A&M’s Moody College, which has two facilities, one on Galveston Island, and the other on Pelican Island. With a 20′ storm surge, both islands will be completely inundated, but the bigger problem will be Texas City, just across the bay. Since we haven’t built any new refineries for years, Texas City has been massively expanded over the years, and it represents a significant portion of our refining capacity. I’d be surprised if any elevation in TC is more than 10′ or 15′.
In terms of expense, and economic impact, Ike may dwarf any previous hurricane in US history without breaking a sweat.
I learned a lot about the great 1900 hurricane while in Galveston, and the old photos were absolutely horrific. Loss of life may be less this time, but in 1900 Galveston was basically an old west port with nothing as far as economic or strategic importance compared to today.
Sep 12, 2008 - 5:04 pm 11. Robbins Mitchell:Well,here in midtown Houston (Montrose) we are all battened down and quite a few people in the area have chosen to ride it out….main concern here is the not the wind but the combined effects of the storm surge and the rain…once the surge backs up into the major bayous in the City (Chocolate,Braes,Buffalo & White Oak)that brings storm drainage to a halt and everything backs up……more reports later if the power is still on
Sep 12, 2008 - 5:41 pm 12. Mike:My work group just completed a couple of projects at refineries in Texas City and Port Arthur. These areas have a truly staggering amount of petroleum industry infrastructure. I’ve never seen anything like it before. They had the intention of leaving most of the Valero TC refinery in hot standby to avoid the shutdown heat problem mentioned above, but those plans were cancelled as it was deemed unsafe to leave even a small rideout crew.
If this goes the wrong way I’m afraid we are going to see a very significant reduction of North American refining capacity and some high gas prices. Refineries aren’t exactly fragile but this sounds like one hell of a storm.
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:05 pm 13. Darren:Pretty hard to damage the SPR, the oil is stored in underground salt formations. They’ve been there for thousands to millions of years, and you know they’ve been dry that long because if they weren’t they would no longer be salt caverns.
At most, Ike would mess with the infrastructure aboveground, but all of that is entirely fixable. Getting the crude out of the SPR is comparatively easy. The main problem is that you can’t burn crude oil in your car, we’re pretty close to max refinery capacity, and losing a major refinery or two for weeks to months will be hard on supply.
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:09 pm 14. IKE ! - Jay Currie:[...] Hurricane Ike will hit around the Houston Ship Channel overnight. Chances are it will be a Cat2 storm which, in a different location on a different night would be no big deal. But tonight is an unusually high tide and Ike’s storm surge is looking like 20 feet. [...]
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:12 pm 15. Trent Telenko:Brendon,
Screw the energy catastrophe. There is a human one in progress. A major Texas city is being wiped from the map.
Galveston Island is a sand island and the survival issue at hand is Hurricane Ike H20 surge caused erosion.
The storm surge is being driven by winds from the sea through the bay to a position *behind* Galveston island.
When Ike moves ashore and the winds turn, that water surge, and the storm rains inland, will flow _over Galveston island_ from the landward side out to sea.
If this surge is large enough — and it is — it will breach the Galveston sea wall from the land side and take at least the top 10 feet of Galveston Island sand near the breach (or breaches) with it.
Only major reinforced concrete buildings with footings 40 or more feet deep in Galveston Island sand will withstand that current going out to sea.
A reinforced concrete building with 20 foot deep footings losing 10 feet of sand will lose almost all of its structural strength and collapse.
Every other dwelling or building that doesn’t have really deep reinforced concrete structural footings near a breach in the sea wall will collapse. This includes all the old brick buildings of the Strand.
Consider that if 23,000 souls are in Galveston. A 1% death rate from surge induced building collapses kills 230 people.
If those Galveston sea wall breaches happen on the heavily populated west end of the island, we will see a death toll in the thousands (AKA a 10% death rate is 2,300).
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:51 pm 16. Geraldo Rivera vs. Hurricane Ike … Ike Wins, Leave it to Geraldo to provide Comic Relief | Scared Monkeys:[...] Ike, a colossal storm nearly as big as Texas itself, began battering the coast Friday, threatening to obliterate waterfront towns and give the [...]
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:13 pm 17. Ike in Galveston - They should have evacuated by Macsmind - Official Blog of the MacRanger Radio Show on Blog Talk Radio:[...] changed much, Texas Rainmaker blogs about his experience during Ike, and it looks like from the news that it’s not going to be pretty once the storm [...]
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:50 am