Comments on: Ike nears coast; storm surge catastrophe likely

By: Ike in Galveston - They should have evacuated by Macsmind - Official Blog of the MacRanger Radio Show on Blog Talk Radio

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 14:50:27 +0000

[...] changed much, Texas Rainmaker blogs about his experience during Ike, and it looks like from the news that it’s not going to be pretty once the storm [...]

By: Geraldo Rivera vs. Hurricane Ike … Ike Wins, Leave it to Geraldo to provide Comic Relief | Scared Monkeys

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 02:13:30 +0000

[...] Ike, a colossal storm nearly as big as Texas itself, began battering the coast Friday, threatening to obliterate waterfront towns and give the [...]

By: Trent Telenko

Trent Telenko — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:51:49 +0000

Brendon,

Screw the energy catastrophe. There is a human one in progress. A major Texas city is being wiped from the map.

Galveston Island is a sand island and the survival issue at hand is Hurricane Ike H20 surge caused erosion.

The storm surge is being driven by winds from the sea through the bay to a position *behind* Galveston island.

When Ike moves ashore and the winds turn, that water surge, and the storm rains inland, will flow _over Galveston island_ from the landward side out to sea.

If this surge is large enough — and it is — it will breach the Galveston sea wall from the land side and take at least the top 10 feet of Galveston Island sand near the breach (or breaches) with it.

Only major reinforced concrete buildings with footings 40 or more feet deep in Galveston Island sand will withstand that current going out to sea.

A reinforced concrete building with 20 foot deep footings losing 10 feet of sand will lose almost all of its structural strength and collapse.

Every other dwelling or building that doesn’t have really deep reinforced concrete structural footings near a breach in the sea wall will collapse. This includes all the old brick buildings of the Strand.

Consider that if 23,000 souls are in Galveston. A 1% death rate from surge induced building collapses kills 230 people.

If those Galveston sea wall breaches happen on the heavily populated west end of the island, we will see a death toll in the thousands (AKA a 10% death rate is 2,300).

By: IKE ! - Jay Currie

IKE ! - Jay Currie — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:12:16 +0000

[...] Hurricane Ike will hit around the Houston Ship Channel overnight. Chances are it will be a Cat2 storm which, in a different location on a different night would be no big deal. But tonight is an unusually high tide and Ike’s storm surge is looking like 20 feet. [...]

By: Darren

Darren — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:09:47 +0000

Pretty hard to damage the SPR, the oil is stored in underground salt formations. They’ve been there for thousands to millions of years, and you know they’ve been dry that long because if they weren’t they would no longer be salt caverns.

At most, Ike would mess with the infrastructure aboveground, but all of that is entirely fixable. Getting the crude out of the SPR is comparatively easy. The main problem is that you can’t burn crude oil in your car, we’re pretty close to max refinery capacity, and losing a major refinery or two for weeks to months will be hard on supply.

By: Mike

Mike — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:05:43 +0000

My work group just completed a couple of projects at refineries in Texas City and Port Arthur. These areas have a truly staggering amount of petroleum industry infrastructure. I’ve never seen anything like it before. They had the intention of leaving most of the Valero TC refinery in hot standby to avoid the shutdown heat problem mentioned above, but those plans were cancelled as it was deemed unsafe to leave even a small rideout crew.

If this goes the wrong way I’m afraid we are going to see a very significant reduction of North American refining capacity and some high gas prices. Refineries aren’t exactly fragile but this sounds like one hell of a storm.

By: Robbins Mitchell

Robbins Mitchell — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 00:41:09 +0000

Well,here in midtown Houston (Montrose) we are all battened down and quite a few people in the area have chosen to ride it out….main concern here is the not the wind but the combined effects of the storm surge and the rain…once the surge backs up into the major bayous in the City (Chocolate,Braes,Buffalo & White Oak)that brings storm drainage to a halt and everything backs up……more reports later if the power is still on

By: Hucbald

Hucbald — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 00:04:37 +0000

My freshman year of college was at Texas A&M’s Moody College, which has two facilities, one on Galveston Island, and the other on Pelican Island. With a 20′ storm surge, both islands will be completely inundated, but the bigger problem will be Texas City, just across the bay. Since we haven’t built any new refineries for years, Texas City has been massively expanded over the years, and it represents a significant portion of our refining capacity. I’d be surprised if any elevation in TC is more than 10′ or 15′.

In terms of expense, and economic impact, Ike may dwarf any previous hurricane in US history without breaking a sweat.

I learned a lot about the great 1900 hurricane while in Galveston, and the old photos were absolutely horrific. Loss of life may be less this time, but in 1900 Galveston was basically an old west port with nothing as far as economic or strategic importance compared to today.

By: ZEITGEIST

ZEITGEIST — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 23:57:02 +0000

[...] ON IKE FROM BRENDAN LOY, who says a storm surge catastrophe is likely. Meanwhile in Knoxville we’ve got storm-generated gas shortages, but there are no lines. [...]

By: Live Blogging Hurricane Ike From The Woodlands, Texas « Blog Entry « Dr. Melissa Clouthier

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 23:40:21 +0000

[...] will. It will be easier to read, if you’re coming back. From Instapundit: MORE ON IKE FROM BRENDAN LOY, who says a storm surge catastrophe is likely. Meanwhile in Knoxville we’ve got [...]