25 Comments

1. Ubu Roi:

Just got power back at my place about 9:30 AM, making me one of the lucky ones. Busy with cleanup; I’ll have thoughts later. May be too tired tonight.

Sep 14, 2008 - 9:58 am 2. solarity:

The National Hurricane Center has been around since 1967. Annual budget is around $6 million. Am I the only one who feels that a government agency that has been working fulltime for over 40 years doing nothing but studying the formation, development and movement of hurricanes has remarkably little to show for it?

With the exception of better sat photos and radar (which NHC had nothing to do with), hurricane forecasts and projections do not seem significantly more reliable now than they were when I was a teen in he 70’s. I may be way off base here but, if major progress is being made, I’m sure not seeing it.

Sep 14, 2008 - 1:27 pm 3. Brendan Loy:

Solarity: You’re way off base. I don’t have the data at my fingertips and don’t have time to look it up just now, but empirically, track forecast error rates have steadily and significantly declined over the last decade or so.

Sep 14, 2008 - 1:39 pm 4. Ubu Roi:

The public and cosmetic companies have been studying human skin for decades now. Literally, billions of dollars have been spent on research and treatment. They have millions of data points, and thousands of studies to work with, and a system far simpler and better understood than the world’s oceans and atmosphere.

Teenagers still get pimples, and old ladies still get wrinkles. It is obvious that the entire field of dermatology is a failure.

Sep 14, 2008 - 3:21 pm 5. Joel Harris:

Brendan,

I would like to commend you post-storm for providing the information that the incompetent local and national medias would/did not provide. when you have no power and the only information you have available is from the internet of your pda you would think you could go to your local medias website to find out what is going on. Unfortunately the local media finds it more important to give us information like “family escapes in speed boat” and “woman gives birth in storm shelter” rather than giving actual relevant information. Instapundit is one of the few sites i read on a daily basis and Glenn was good to give constant links to you. I am fed up with the news media in general. At least for the future I know there is someone I can rely to provide relevant and useful information rather than sensationalistic crap.

Sep 14, 2008 - 5:20 pm 6. K:

I question if the NHC runs on a budget of $6m. That is very low. I ran a small engineering department 15 years ago that had about the same budget. And we sure weren’t an impressive operation.

At that time it took about $150K to keep an engineer plugging away on devising information systems. That included benefits, computer costs, software costs, and some travel and education expense.

After inflation $6m would perhaps equate to a staff of 20-40 today.

Are they really that small?

Sep 15, 2008 - 2:54 am 7. Paul:

Hello All,

We are from Sugar Land (southwestern border of Houston in Fort Bend co.) We have our power back on. Surprisingly the internet also.

Sugar Land suffered a fair amount of damage, nothing major, but, I am sure it will run to the 10s of millions. We, unlike other greater Houston communities, have no major infrastructure damage, A huge mess to be cleaned up though. I lost a lot of shingles on my roof and my fence is down. It could have been much worse.

However, riding out a category 2 (and in reality a 3) storm in a dark house is not a friday night i would recommend for anyone.
I am not sure how bad the winds got but I know we had some gusts in the 100+ category.

A few comments that need to be made from someone on the ground here. 1) Galveston Island is not the mess Y’all see. the damage is severe, but it is not destroyed. I have heard that all most of you are seeing is the mess on the seawall. the rest of the island is badly damaged, but intact. Even the west end looks much better today form helicopter than the video you have posted. It has survived.

2)For all the very appropriate criticism that George Bush and his administration took for the Katrina debacle I have not herad a single compliment for the job they have done in fixing the system and the very..very good response to Ike. there are more than a few reporters out there trying to stir up “Katrina – like” controversies over minor logistical issues like deliveries arriving late to PODS, or confusion over where the PODS will be and who is responsible.

3) We also must compliment the leadership shown by both Mayor White and Judge Emmett (and in my case Judge Herbert). what a difference from that incompetent lunatic Nagin, wandering around pointing fingers, We have seen cool and efficient leadership and as was apparent during Gustave, New Orleans still has a serious leadership gap at the local level.

4)(and last) The behavior of local congressmen and other politicians has been disgraceful. In particular the behavior of Shelia Jackson Lee is reprehensible. this is not a free campaign op. This woman has ot give a speech about how much she is doing (and frankly she is taking credit for the work of others) at every single briefing. Shouldn’t she be back in Washington making sure the help needed is available instead of campaigning, THIS IS NOT A PHOTO OP. Shame on you Ms. Lee.

if you want or need other info from a “reporter” on the ground, Brendan, feel free to contact me. You have my email I believe in the submission. I also have about 100 digital pics of damage around Sugar Land, which is mostly trees and fences down if you are interested.

Paul

Sep 15, 2008 - 9:06 am 8. B. Minich:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html

A post from a blog with pictures of Ike’s aftermath – best collection of pictures I’ve seen on Ike yet. The Big Picture is a great blog.

Sep 15, 2008 - 9:53 am 9. solarity:

” For example, NOAA has an annual budget of over $4 billion, and NHC’s budget is just $6.3 million.”

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=677&tstamp=200705

Yes, this is a small budget by federal agency standards but I maintain that, even at this low level, we are not getting much of a return on our investment. 40 years of fullltime research by an entire research team of crack hurricane meteorologists and the best that can be said is “but empirically, track forecast error rates have steadily and significantly declined over the last decade or so”. Talk about damning with faint praise!

Sep 15, 2008 - 10:49 am 10. David Thomson:

We live off of Belt Way 8 and West Belfort. Our electricity was back on by late Saturday evening. Houston is not New Orleans! The citizens of this area are mostly mature adults who are not waiting for the government to do everything for them.

Sep 15, 2008 - 11:13 pm 11. Andrew Dalton:

solarity – “Error” is a scientific concept that refers to a quantitative degree of uncertainty, or in the difference between a predicted value and the actual result. It is not a synonym for “mistake” as in its colloquial use.

The relevant question is not whether any particular hurricane forecast has error, but rather how much.

Sep 16, 2008 - 1:37 pm 12. doctorj2u:

I am so glad the storms are over! Thank you Brendan for all your information. And as to all the comparisons your posters are making between Texas to New Orleans, the journey of Texas has just begun. They will find out the truth of this government the way I did. You never know how broken it is until the bureacracy is in control of your future. And one more point, it was federal levee failure, not a hurricane, that destroyed New Orleans. There is REASON to blame the government.

Sep 17, 2008 - 5:30 am 13. ubu:

A federally built levee that was placed under the control and maintenance of local government: the Levee Board, whose inspectors usually knocked off about noonish to 2p.m. and spent the rest of the day hanging out at restaurants.

Sep 17, 2008 - 12:58 pm 14. SteveSadlov:

Some interesting stuff from the Dallas Morning News’ portion of the blogosphere, in response to a blog about the dunderheads who did not evac:

Posted by RaginWhatever @ 12:33 PM Tue, Sep 16, 2008

Dey allllllllllways turn! Dem ole ‘caines … dey allllllllways turn. I allllllllways ride ‘em out. Heh, heh, heh. Dats whut I pay duh tax for, so ole coastGUARD …. he kin save my tush! Dey allllllllways turn …
report as objectionable

Posted by Laissez les bons tons rouler @ 1:19 PM Tue, Sep 16, 2008

I find it hard to believe that ANYONE from Dallas or from the general United States would feel qualified to comment on a Gulf Coast storm or on the people of this region.

This area is very impoverished and evacuation probably was not an option. The island was underwater nearly a day before the storm even arrived so many people that planned to evacuate could not by this time.

report as objectionable

Posted by Carolyn @ 2:15 PM Tue, Sep 16, 2008

RaginWhatever you are a sad example of our area in that case
report as objectionable

Posted by Chanteause Quebecoise @ 12:23 PM Wed, Sep 17, 2008

Hallo Mssr. Ragin’ … me … I cannot agree wid you mowar! An’ wun moor ting … jus led dem tudge dose tings foor wunz!:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_8Y0JhSSGo

By duh way, Mssr. Ragin’ … eeez dees hyou?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK4umRMJlrs

Sil vous plait, please stay stubborn! Ride dem out, alWAYS!

A bientot!
report as objectionable

Sep 17, 2008 - 1:12 pm 15. doctorj2u:

UBU wrote:
“A federally built levee that was placed under the control and maintenance of local government: the Levee Board, whose inspectors usually knocked off about noonish to 2p.m. and spent the rest of the day hanging out at restaurants ”

The job of the levee board is to cut the grass and take care of the marinas. Local officials (St. Bernard Parish) were actually told by the Corps of Engineers they would be arrested at gunpoint if they TOUCHED the federal levves. Even so, it has been proven (and admitted to by the COE) that it was a design error that caused the failure. Maintenance was not an issue. I perfectly maintained poorly designed levee still breaks.
Go to levees.org and educate yourself. It is a non-partisan organization formed to protect other Americans from going through the pain and heartache the people of southern LA have had to endure.

Sep 17, 2008 - 4:48 pm 16. Jim C:

Here’s the deal though… if those people had evacuated the tragedy of N.O. would have been far less of a tragedy. The same goes with whatever ends up of the poor souls that stayed behind on Galveston and Bolivar. Local officials issued mandatory evacuation orders, and people chose to ignore them. At some point people have to take responsibility for their poor decisions.

Jim C

Sep 17, 2008 - 10:11 pm 17. Ubu Roi:

A design error that goes back seventy years — I read the LSU report. As for state control of the levees, I don’t think so. Not given La.’s history of corruption. Recent levees weren’t just mis-designed, they were mis-built– by local contractors. And the pumps that failed were those installed in the last 40 years by the state of La. The old pumps from the 20’s were designed and built properly, and they kept working.

(I can say mean things about the state without being bigoted; I was born and raised in “Loozyanna”. Texas isn’t near squeaky clean, but it’s far better than my birth state.)

Also, no way we want the Levee wars of the 19th century to return, which is what putting levees under state control would lead to. The current system isn’t perfect, but it’s the only way things will work.

Sep 17, 2008 - 11:09 pm 18. doctorj2u:

UBU,
Local contractors are under complete control of the COE. In fact, one local contractor recognized the design problem, the Corps refused to change their plans (no money to change them); he SUED the Corps to change the plans and he lost. It cost us an American city and billions of dollars. I don’t hold the COE in complete contempt. Many of the workers LIVE in NOLA. They are a bureaucracy and we all know how well they work. They are also limited by how much money Congress will give them and, as we have seen many times since the flood, infrastructure is not visible enough for them to fund. These errors in ways are costing American lives and money. It is a lot cheaper to pay for prevention than to pay for the disaster that is sure to follow if it is ignored. I can talk sanely about this now because my city is back on its feet. It is NOT because of government but because of the GUTS of the locals and the help of volunteer groups from all over the world. My complete shock is in my political party. They blindly support incompetence, ineptness and cronyism as long as it is THEIR incompetence, ineptness and cronyism. I have lost all faith in the political system and this country. I do believe in the goodness in individuals hearts that care enough to come and help. I waver between fighting to change the system and giving the fight up as useless. It just depends on the day you hit me.

Sep 18, 2008 - 6:54 am 19. ubu:

Doctor2ju: this has been a profitable exchange, IMHO; I’ve learned some more details about the disaster from you. I would like to point out though, it was no small amount of money: the difference was driving sheet metal pilings 14 feet vs 40 feet — which would require huge buttresses and footings, thus more land expropriation.

“My complete shock is in my political party. They blindly support incompetence, ineptness and cronyism as long as it is THEIR incompetence, ineptness and cronyism. I have lost all faith in the political system and this country.”

At the risk of interjecting politics: On this we can agree. As a young boy growing up, it was painfully obvious to me that the dominant political party was horribly corrupt, so I registered for the other one. For the last decade though, I’ve been little more impressed by their behavior. And like you, “I waver between fighting to change the system and giving the fight up as useless. It just depends on the day you hit me.”

Sep 18, 2008 - 10:00 am 20. doctorj2u:

Jim C,
If everyone had evacuated New Orleans, over 200,000 homes would still be destroyed and the aftermath would still be the same. The only difference is that America would not have to see the pain and suffering people endured and have endured over 2 years after the levees broke. Is that enough for you? As long as you don’t have to see it, everything is A OK? That is not the America I was brought up to love and respect. New Orleans is a world city. We have LIVED because the world has come to help us. What chance does a small town have? Conservatives think everything is OK if they don’t hear things in the news. All the stuff about the MS River floods (Cedar Rapids) being an example of a strong America. What a joke! There was arson and looting but it happened AFTER the media’s eye left. How do I know? Because caring flooded Americans help one another. We KNOW it is the stress AFTER the disaster where true human nature shows itself.
Ubu, thank you for listening. There is a true story to the tragedy in New Orleans that has not been heard. I thank you for at least keeping an open mind.

Sep 18, 2008 - 4:21 pm 21. Ubu Roi:

Well, I had one until you made the wisecrack about “Conservatives think everything is ok if they don’t hear things in the news.” Excuse me, but where did you get that idea?

And given the overwhelming media lean towards a party that can’t be described as conservative, who’s fault is it that it doesn’t appear in the news? I was just ruminating this evening how urban-centric they are; Liberty county is still 98% without electricity. Did the local media go there? No — they picked up a story from a North Carolina TV station that did. A station from hundreds of miles away is more willing to to look beyond the suburbs for a story.

That’s just a sad commentary on Houston media.

Sep 18, 2008 - 7:17 pm 22. doctorj2u:

Ubu,
We DO agree on a lot. The town of Lafite, LA is still under 5 feet of flood water and not a word from the national news media. Which is worse though – no news or slanted news? The media is totally screwed up.

Sep 19, 2008 - 8:17 am 23. notutopia:

Agree Wholeheartedly doctorj2u. I have been desperately trying for a week now to find out any factual (NOT blog rumour mill) information on my family members who are living in smaller rural areas on the outskirts of the Houston NE area, Montgomery County, NE Houston, and Brazoria County who have been hit just as hard as Galveston Island, yet all you see or hear from the media coverage is Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula.I have had to rely on blog sites in the area which were still operational to get any info second hand from survivors. There is still NO POWER, No cell phone coverage, No phone, No postings at the County websites on when to expect debris pickup, pole and line restoration for power, fuel, banking, AND they never ONCE saw FEMA or a county representative. NO ICE, WATER, SEWER, or FOOD MRE’s and it’s been a week. The Issue is that in their Emergency Management Plans they base priority on mass populace areas to receive ALL the assistance first and then pull out once power comes back on.(Which in this case may be weeks) Everyone else is suffering through and have been forgotten. The system broke while the cities were assisted. It is only the good neighbor system that is working to keep each other intact in these rural areas. I went myself to post Katrina to volunteer my medical services. I got to witness first hand what it did to my birthplace of N.O. and what our multiple levels of government did and didn’t do. I can also say that,so far, this FEMA and Media coverage may be by comparison, a great response for Galveston and Galveston County, but, Not for Brazoria or Montgomery Counties. One week later and still the communication infrastructure is nil. How can you provide essential triage of emergency services and survival consumables and medical care when you have not even acknowledged, addressed or assessed those rural and suburban areas for it’s needs? The county plans are majorly flawed. The incorporated to city areas have forgotten their neighboring citizens who still pay taxes to their county and contribute to their overall economic structure for trade. I have emailed KHOU, KTRV, and the HOUSTON CHRONICLE to get out there and tell this story, so that ALL the nation can see for themselves what is occurring, or better yet, what’s not occurring. I encourage everyone to pressure them to do the same. By the way, I had to hire an aerial photographer to take pictures of my own property on the coast because TXDOT still has not allowed access to Bluewater hwy in Brazoria CTY and rumour has it that it may be MONTHS before I can get road access to even see the damage to MY home. This is the same aerial photographer that has filmed the TX coastline for abc news. http://picasaweb.google.com/abccbooks
You can contact him at email aflyphoto@gmail.com
Hope this helps someone seeking answers to the unknown. God speed to our recovery process and please give us lots of patience and understanding. This is only just the beginning of this process.

Sep 20, 2008 - 9:42 am 24. notutopia:

Correction of the website for damage pictures.
http;//picasaweb.google.com/abcbbooks

Sep 20, 2008 - 9:52 am 25. doctorj2u:

notuopia,
Thank you for the link and thank you for volunteering in NOLA. I am sure you know this already, but the role of the volunteers meant EVERYTHING. It was not so much what they did, though that was very important, but the hope they brought with them. It told us we were not in this hell alone. I am positive just your presence saved lives. (preventing suicides) I already know of efforts in NOLA to get generators etc. to Texas. To give you an idea of power, it took 2 weeks after Katrina to get it back. (Cable and internet 3 weeks.) The first outside help I saw was about a week after the storm. It was a tree clearing crew and I sobbed like a baby when I saw them. I can’t swear to this, because I never saw them myself, but I think FEMA ice etc. took a little over a week. The next several months will be very difficult for the people involved, esp. when the adrenaline wears off. We must not forget them.

Sep 20, 2008 - 2:32 pm

Write a Comment

Name:	(required, displayed)
Email:	(required, not publicized)
URL:	(optional, displayed)
Comments: