September 6th, 2008 10:15 am

Weekend Edition


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The Terminator franchise reboots with Terminator Salvation, coming next spring.

** TERMINATING AGAIN. This is the first weekend of the NFL season. More about it tomorrow. The NFL season actually kicked off Thursday night, when the defending Super Bowl champ New York Giants beat the Washington Redskins, providing a great lead-in audience for John McCain’s acceptance speech.

College football is in its second weekend, but top-ranked USC has a bye after beating Virginia last Saturday, 52-7. The Trojans take on #3 Ohio State next Saturday in a big early season showdown. But Ohio State is struggling now against Ohio.

Now, for the Terminator Salvation movie trailer. Arnold Schwarzenegger is not in the movie, which stars The Dark Knight’s Christian Bale, i.e., Bruce Wayne/Batman, as John Connor, the leader of the human resistance. As governor of California, Schwarzenegger’s not directly involved with the reboot of the Terminator franchise, last seen on the big screen with his big 2003 hit Terminator 3, which he launched around the world the month before he launched his candidacy for governor in the dramatic California recall election.

But someone who looks a lot like Schwarzenegger is in the movie, which is set in the future with the frequently mentioned war against the machines well underway. That would be Roland Kickinger, a former Mister Austria who played the younger Schwarzenegger in a movie I helped produce called See Arnold Run. Kickinger will play an early version of the T-800 terminator model Schwarzenegger made famous.

There’s a lot going on with Terminator world. The second season of the Terminator TV series, Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, which takes place after Terminator 2: Judgment Day, kicks off Monday night on Fox.

** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Newark, New Jersey (he had a $3 million fundraiser last night at the home of rock star Jon Bon Jovi) and Terre Haute, Indiana, where he has a town hall meeting on the economy.

Joe Biden is off the campaign trail at home in Wilmington, Delaware.

John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Colorado Springs, Colorado and Albuquerque, New Mexico. Palin will be leaving the campaign trail shortly to return home to Alaska. There she will try to get up to speed on the issues, take care of personal business, and see off her son Track when he leaves for Army duty in Iraq on, naturally, September 11th.

Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and John McCain will all appear on Sunday interview shows. Sarah Palin will not.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. As reported first on NWN, the conservative California Taxpayers Association decided yesterday to endorse Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s compromise budget proposal. It includes a temporary sales tax increase, which would be folded back over time, budget cuts, and long-term budget reforms including a rainy day fund. This is the first time that Cal-Tax   –  which represents most of the conservative business community in the state  –  has supported a tax increase in my memory. But some conservatives in the Legislature insist that they will hold out against the Schwarzenegger proposal, even though they refuse to spell out their program beyond more borrowing and cuts they won’t delineate. The state has set a record for the lateness.

Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions this weekend in LA.

** QUE SERA, SARAH. So, after Wednesday night’s spectacle of an intensively-rehearsed Sarah Palin whipping up the Republican convention crowd, what will be for her? Que sera, Sarah.

I think in the end Palin is a sideshow, a base play too problematic and extreme to appeal to independents and moderates, a tyro whose politics actually undercuts the positioning John McCain needs to win the election.

McCain’s acceptance speech last night, heavy with elegiac tones, had none of the pop of Palin’s. What it did have was depth beyond Palin’s glib wisecracks, and a more centrist positioning beyond Palin’s right-wing base-stoking, and McCain’s own Bush-backing record of recent years. What it did not have was the substance to back up the centrist reformism McCain needs to try to upset Obama.

I asked McCain’s old friend Gary Hart, who was McCain’s groomsman at the Vietnam War hero’s wedding to Cindy, what he thought. “McCain,” he said, noting the flat response of the convention crowd even to the watered-down centrism of last night, “is trying to return the neocon party to the traditional conservative party. He won’t succeed.” … From my new Huffington Post column.

** OBAMA AND MCCAIN TOGETHER FOR 9/11. Barack Obama and John McCain will cease campaigning for the day on September 11th and appear together at Ground Zero in New York City, former site of the World Trade Center.

“On September 11, 2008, we will join together to mark the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 attacks at Ground Zero.

“All of us came together on 9/11 - not as Democrats or Republicans – but as Americans. In smoke-filled corridors and on the steps of the Capitol; at blood banks and at vigils - we were united as one American family. On Thursday, we will put aside politics and come together to renew that unity, to honor the memory of each and every American who died, and to grieve with the families and friends who lost loved ones. We will also give thanks for the firefighters, police, and emergency responders who set a heroic example of selfless service, and for the men and women who serve today in defense of the freedom and security that came under attack in New York City, at the Pentagon, and in Shanksville, Pennsylvania.”

** F1 SUNDAY. The Formula One racing season continues Sunday morning with the Belgian Grand Prix. It’s a tight race for the world driving championship between England’s own Lewis Hamilton, first black driver in F1, who races for McLaren-Mercedes, and Brazil’s Felipe Massa and Finland’s Kimi Raikonnen, both of Ferrari.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed on Friday at $106.23 per barrel. That’s the lowest price in five months. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

The drop of over $41 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

September 5th, 2008 7:15 am

Another Convention Ends, And More


The close of John McCain’s acceptance speech last night at the Republican National Convention.

**  MCCAIN-LINKED BANK SHUT DOWN BY FEDERAL REGULATORS. The Wall Street Journal will report in Saturday’s edition that Nevada’s Silver State Bank has just been shut down by federal regulators. John McCain’s son by his first marriage, Andrew McCain, had been a key member of the bank’s board of directors.

Regulators shut down Silver State Bank, the latest in a series of bank failures and one that could ripple through the presidential campaign. Until recently, the son of Republican nominee Sen. McCain sat on Silver State’s board and was a member of its three-person audit committee, which was responsible for overseeing the company’s financial condition. Andrew McCain left the Henderson, Nev., bank July 26 after five months on the board, citing “personal reasons.” He is Sen. McCain’s adopted son from his first marriage.

** CALIFORNIA BUDGET DEVELOPMENT. According to informed sources, the conservative California Taxpayers Association will endorse Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s compromise solution to the chronic California budget crisis. Schwarzenegger’s plan includes a temporary sales tax hike, a rainy day fund, and other budget reforms.

** OIL HITS 5-MONTH LOW. Reflecting the economic slump and a decreased geopolitical risk premium, crude oil closed today at the lowest price in five months, $106.57 per barrel. Oil has dropped $41 a barrel since reaching an all-time high on July 11th.

** QUE SERA, SARAH. So, after Wednesday night’s spectacle of an intensively-rehearsed Sarah Palin whipping up the Republican convention crowd, what will be for her? Que sera, Sarah.

I think in the end Palin is a sideshow, a base play too problematic and extreme to appeal to independents and moderates, a tyro whose politics actually undercuts the positioning John McCain needs to win the election.

McCain’s acceptance speech last night, heavy with elegiac tones, had none of the pop of Palin’s. What it did have was depth beyond Palin’s glib wisecracks, and a more centrist positioning beyond Palin’s right-wing base-stoking, and McCain’s own Bush-backing record of recent years. What it did not have was the substance to back up the centrist reformism McCain needs to try to upset Obama.

I asked McCain’s old friend Gary Hart, who was McCain’s groomsman at the Vietnam War hero’s wedding to Cindy, what he thought. “McCain,” he said, noting the flat response of the convention crowd even to the watered-down centrism of last night, “is trying to return the neocon party to the traditional conservative party. He won’t succeed.” … From my new column.

ANOTHER CONVENTION ENDS.

Let’s face it, national party conventions are anachronisms. Near week-long infomercials with delegates reduced to extras, scripted, hectic affairs with shorter shelf lives than ever in the new media environment.

That said, how did the Republicans do, and will it make any difference against the Democrats?

John McCain’s speech last night was underwhelming. He tried to do what he has to do in terms of positioning. (Which is at least as important as branding, and in my view, more important.) With controversial pick Sarah Palin in place to excite the party’s conservatives, McCain pivoted back to his maverick reformer role, distancing himself from the two terms of President Bush and Vice President Cheney, both of whom were absent. Bush is the first sitting president since Lyndon Johnson in 1968, at the height of the Vietnam War, not to attend his own party convention.

McCain came on heavy with a lot of biography, and not a lot of specifics. Very little on the economy, where his policies mirror those of Bush and Cheney, but at least acknowledgement of the existence of a big problem. Unemployment just hit a five-year high. Some on energy, where his remarks about renewable power fell flat with the very conservative crowd in the hall, but no mention of his climate change views. Some on national security, especially the Iraq surge, and resurgent Russia, but, intriguingly, not on Iran.

Preliminary estimates are that the TV audience for his speech, boosted by the NFL season opener’s lead-in audience and the previous night’s widespread curiosity about Palin, matched Obama’s Denver stadium extravaganza last week. As honorable an effort as McCain’s was, that’s not a comparison that’s going to help over time.

I thought that neither the Republican convention nor the Democratic convention did a very good job of seriously tagging their opponents. The Republicans seemed better at driving a negative message, naturally, but had less time to do it because of Hurricane Gustav and were dealing with a more chaotic situation thanks to Hurricane Sarah.

So kudos to the Republicans for pulling off a credible convention under extreme stress.

What about the new attack-the-press strategy developed by old NWN friend Steve Schmidt?

I understand the strategic imperative. They have a controversial veep pick who’s been in the midst of an unsurprising feeding frenzy. And to the extent that a stance of intimidation gets anyone to back off, it’s a plus.

On the other hand, overall it’s a strategy that won’t work in the long term. But the McCain campaign has been prospering by fighting a series of short-term, sometimes very short-term, battles. Their goal is to be within striking distance of Obama. Which they are.

What about Palin? I have another column coming on her. Which I expect will be the last column I write about her anytime soon. Putting aside the National Enquirer digging into her private life, staying in the public arena, there are plenty of questions about her. Her reformer posture seems contradictory. A number of her political views are well outside the mainstream. Her tenure in tiny Wasilla, which turns out not to be the idyllic Rockwellesque small town her new conservative fans imagine. Actually, Palin’s home town is the methamphetamine capital of Alaska.

In the end, this election won’t be about her, it will quickly settle back into what it’s been all along. A change election in a troubled country between a change agent who may be too risky and inexperienced and a change agent who may represent more of the same.

** HEART NIXES PALIN’S THEME SONG. The American rock group Heart is insisting that their late ’70s hit song “Barracuda” no longer be used as theme music for Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. “Sarah Barracuda” was Palin’s high school basketball nickname.

Group leaders Nancy and Ann Wilson put out this statement: “Sarah Palin’s views and values in NO WAY represent us as American women. We ask that our song ‘Barracuda’ no longer be used to promote her image. The song ‘Barracuda’ was written in the late 70s as a scathing rant against the soulless, corporate nature of the music business, particularly for women. (The ‘barracuda’ represented the business.) While Heart did not and would not authorize the use of their song at the RNC, there’s irony in Republican strategists’ choice to make use of it there.”

John McCain’s campaign has run into repeated trouble using artists’ songs without their permission. John Mellencamp stopped them for using a couple of his songs. Van Halen is insisting that one of their hits — with the notable refrain “Turn this thing around” — which played as Palin’s intro music last Friday at her first rally with McCain as potential veep, no longer be used.

** INDIANA POLL: MCCAIN BY 2. A new Howey-Gauge poll of red state Indiana shows John McCain with a narrow lead over Barack Obama, 45% to 43%. Both men are viewed favorably in the mid-50s. Obama and Joe Biden will be campaigning in the Hoosier State shortly.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Duryea, Pennsylvania.

Joe Biden is in Philadelphia and Langhorne, Pennsylvania.

John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Cedarburg, Wisconsin and Sterling Heights, Michigan.

** BIDEN VIEWED AS MUCH MORE QUALIFIED THAN PALIN. Despite all the hoopla over surprise Republican veep pick Sarah Palin, she looks like a play for the Republican base, as I pointed out immediately after she was selected last week, as well as an attempt to shake things up with stunt casting. The ABC News poll shows that Joe Biden is viewed as far more qualified than Palin, and that, while likeable, Palin is not reaching across party lines or motivating independents.

Incidentally, to the extent that attention is focused on Palin’s private life, that’s a good thing for her, because it engenders sympathy. Actually, it’s a good thing up to a point. The National Enquirer is now on her case, promising to be as diligent with her as it was with John Edwards. When attention is focused on her political record, it’s a very mixed bag thing for her.

66% of American voters view Biden as qualified, with only 21% saying he is unqualified. Palin is viewed as qualified by 42%, a few points above the baseline Republican vote in a national election, and unqualified by 50%.

I’m finishing up another column on the Palin dynamic, then will focus on the main events.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will be in Los Angeles today, holding private meetings and conversations centering around the chronic California budget crisis. Conservative Republicans in the Legislature have been loathe to point out what further cuts they want to go along with their plan for more borrowing.

On Monday night, the second season of the series Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles begins on Fox TV. Schwarzenegger is not directly involved in the show. It marks a continuing renewal of the governator’s signature franchise role, as does next year’s new feature film Terminator Salvation, starring Dark Knight Christian Bale as John Connor.

** OBAMA COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE R.N.C., AND HURRICANES SARAH AND GUSTAV. What a bizarre week in presidential politics for Barack Obama to mount a counter-programming effort. He has the Republican National Convention and Hurricanes Gustav and Sarah. And it’s going pretty well for him. Not that he has all that much to do with it.

Hurricane Gustav disrupted the flow of the Republican national convention. Hurricane Sarah distracted from the substance of the convention, though she has emerged as the new star of the right.

We may never know everything that Team Obama would have done to counter-program the RNC, absent the twin hurricanes. … From my new Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $107 per barrel. The oil markets are relieved that Hurricane Gustav missed the Gulf of Mexico oil platforms, all of which were evacuated.

The drop of over $40 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

September 4th, 2008 8:40 am

Mac Tries For Another Surge, And More


 

A new John McCain video in which he promotes “service to country above all else” and denounces “hyperpartisanship.”

** RAISING MCCAIN. Ended up on the phone for an hour-and-a-half after John McCain’s acceptance speech. There’s much to say, most of it for tomorrow. But for now, it was intriguing how much McCain criticized the Republican Party, barely mentioning President Bush, distancing himself as far as possible from the last eight years of his party’s governance.

McCain cast himself repeatedly as the maverick, the change agent we can count on.

“I don’t work for a party,” declared McCain. “I don’t work for a special interest. I don’t work for myself. I work for you.”

There was little, however, in the way of economic policy, though the veteran Western senator acknowledged and identified with the country’s economic difficulties.

The speech was heavy on McCain’s biography and the importance of national security and service to country, with much of it word-from-word from some earlier addresses (I’ve listened to a lot of McCain speeches). McCain cited his work across partisan lines, more extensive than Barack Obama’s, a target of McCain’s criticism but hit with only a few glancing blows.

“I will reach out my hand to anyone to help me get this country moving again. I have that record and the scars to prove it. Senator Obama does not,” McCain noted.

McCain ended with a peroration that excited the crowd: I’m going to fight for my cause every day as your President. I’m going to fight to make sure every American has every reason to thank God, as I thank Him: that I’m an American, a proud citizen of the greatest country on earth, and with hard work, strong faith and a little courage, great things are always within our reach. Fight with me. Fight with me.

Fight for what’s right for our country.

Fight for the ideals and character of a free people.

Fight for our children’s future.

Fight for justice and opportunity for all.

Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.

Stand up for each other; for beautiful, blessed, bountiful America.

Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable here. We’re Americans, and we never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.

It’s the positioning McCain needs. Will Obama and the Democrats allow him to have this positioning? That may be the question on which the election turns.

** OBAMA ON O’REILLY. Interesting interview of Barack Obama just now by Fox News personality Bill O’Reilly.

O’Reilly declared that Obama was right in opposing the Iraq War.

Obama acknowledged that the Iraq surge “has succeeded in ways nobody anticipated.” Though he would not say it was a mistake for him to have opposed it.

O’Reilly said afterward that “Obama is a tough guy.”

** MCCAIN SPEECH EXCERPTS. “I’m very proud to have introduced our next Vice President to the country. But I can’t wait until I introduce her to Washington. And let me offer an advance warning to the old, big spending, do nothing, me first, country second Washington crowd: change is coming.” …

“The constant partisan rancor that stops us from solving these problems isn’t a cause, it’s a symptom. It’s what happens when people go to Washington to work for themselves and not you. Again and again, I’ve worked with members of both parties to fix problems that need to be fixed. That’s how I will govern as President. I will reach out my hand to anyone to help me get this country moving again. I have that record and the scars to prove it. Senator Obama does not.” …

“I fell in love with my country when I was a prisoner in someone else’s. I loved it not just for the many comforts of life here. I loved it for its decency; for its faith in the wisdom, justice and goodness of its people. I loved it because it was not just a place, but an idea, a cause worth fighting for. I was never the same again. I wasn’t my own man anymore. I was my country’s.”

** DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST GALE KAUFMAN ON THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN AND THE PALIN PICK. The top female political strategist in California says the John McCain campaign is all show and no substance and the selection of Sarah Palin reveals an insulting view of women.

Gale Kaufman won the American Association of Political Consultants Campaign Manager of the Year award for her role in defeating Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2005 special election initiatives package. She think Team McCain is very worried and showing it by trying to browbeat the press.

** THE PALIN EFFECT: FUNDRAISING. We know that John McCain’s campaign has raised over $10 million since the naming of Sarah Palin as his running mate last Friday.

But it turns out that Barack Obama has raised $8 million since Palin’s speech last night at the Republican national convention. The Obama campaign thinks it may be $10 million by the time McCain takes the stage tonight to accept the Republican presidential nomination.

** OBAMA DISMISSES PALIN’S CRITICISM. In a press availability next to his campaign bus in York, Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama dismissed criticisms leveled by new GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

 

“I’ll let Governor Palin talk about her experience, I’ll talk about mine. You wouldn’t know that this is such a critical election by watching the convention last night. I know we had our week, and the Republicans deserve theirs, but it’s been amazing to me to watch over the last two nights.

 

“You’re hearing a lot about John McCain, and he’s got a compelling biography as a prisoner of war. You’re hearing an awful lot about me, most of which is not true. What you’re not hearing is a lot about you.

 

“The thing that I’m insisting on in this election is we can’t keep playing the same political games we always play where we attack each other and we call each other names. …

 

“They’ve had a lot of speakers. And if they had a bunch of ideas, you’d think they would have put ‘em out there by now. And so the question is, what’s their agenda? What’s their plan?”

 

** MORE BATTLEGROUND STATES: OBAMA PULLING AWAY IN IOWA AND MINNESOTA, BARELY AHEAD IN OHIO. A set of new polls for Time and CNN of battleground states Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio shows Barack Obama pulling away from John McCain in Iowa and Minnesota. Obama leads McCain in Iowa, 55-40, and Minnesota, 53-41. But in Ohio, it’s only 47-45.

 

** NORTH DAKOTA POLL: OBAMA BY 3. A poll by DFM, taken last week just before Barack Obama’s big speech, in unlikely battleground state North Dakota, shows Obama leading John McCain, 43% to 40%.

 

The Morning Column: MAC TRIES FOR ANOTHER SURGE.

 

A big night tonight for John McCain, whose championing of the US military surge in Iraq paid big dividends. Now he needs a surge for his own campaign after a week focused on his controversial pick of Sarah Palin, a distracting hurricane, and an improvised, stop-and-start convention which has not taken the bark off Barack Obama.

 

In a briefing this morning with longtime McCain campaign manager Rick Davis (Steve Schmidt is campaign director), McCain senior advisor and speechwriter Mark Salter, and communications advisor Adam Mendelsohn, today’s line-up was sketched out. There will be a press conference in early afternoon on the military successes of the Iraq surge, and Palin, who of course spoke last night, will be formally nominated for vice president by acclamation.

 

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, an apparent runner-up to Palin, will speak in the early evening, followed by Florida Senator Mel Martinez, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, a McCain buddy.

 

That begins the transition into the McCain portion, as Graham is followed by former Pennsylvania Governor and homeland security chief Tom Ridge. Cindy McCain then speaks, followed by the John McCain video, and then the senator himself to deliver his acceptance speech.

 


 

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the surprise vice presidential nominee, addressed the Republican National Convention last night.

 

Apparently, the partisan red meat was handled last night by Palin. Salter, who co-authored McCain’s best-selling books with McCain, says that McCain’s speech will focus on service to country and bipartisan accomplishment.

 

Which means he is speaking to the country and the center, whereas Palin spoke more to the hall and the Republican base.

 


 

John McCain’s new TV ad touting Sarah Palin as “the Alaska Maverick” and hitting Barack Obama for “empty words.”

 

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

 

Barack Obama is in York and Lancaster, Pennsylvania. He appears tonight on the Fox News show The O’Reilly Factor.

 

Joe Biden is in Virginia Beach and Manassas, Virginia. He appeared this morning on all six broadcast and cable news network morning shows.

 

John McCain is in St. Paul, Minnesota.

 

Sarah Palin is in St. Paul, Minnesota.

 

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a press conference this morning at a medical center in Burbank threatened by the chronic California budget crisis.

 

The event will be webcast live at 9:15 AM at www.gov.ca.gov.

 

** OBAMA COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE R.N.C., AND HURRICANES SARAH AND GUSTAV. What a bizarre week in presidential politics for Barack Obama to mount a counter-programming effort. He has the Republican National Convention and Hurricanes Gustav and Sarah. And it’s going pretty well for him. Not that he has all that much to do with it.

 

Hurricane Gustav disrupted the flow of the Republican national convention. Hurricane Sarah distracted from the substance of the convention, though she has emerged as the new star of the right.

 

We may never know everything that Team Obama would have done to counter-program the RNC, absent the twin hurricanes. … From my new Huffington Post column.

 

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

 

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

 

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $109 per barrel. The oil markets are relieved that Hurricane Gustav missed the Gulf of Mexico oil platforms, all of which were evacuated.

 

The drop of over $39 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

 

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Yikes! Former Reagan chief speechwriter Peggy Noonan and former McCain and Schwarzenegger chief strategist Mike Murphy, thinking they are off the air, trash the selection of Sarah Palin as “bullshit” and “political cynicism.” Says Wall Street Journal columnist Noonan: “It’s over.”

** PRIME TIME WEDNESDAY. A mixed bag for tonight’s Republican national convention in prime time. Mitt Romney took some shots at Barack Obama, out of prime time, but didn’t lay much of his glove on the frontrunner. Rudy Giuliani, in prime time, had some better luck, as he is a better speaker.

But Giuliani spoke way too long. As a result, the Sarah Palin introductory video did not air. It’s not as though Palin needs to be properly positioned for the country or anything, right?

Palin also spoke for a long time. Too long, in my view. I started losing interest after 15 minutes or so, though she clearly turned on the crowd in the hall, which is not exactly overflow, unlike the Democrats in Denver.

Palin acquitted herself well, on balance. She is spirited and articulate, if not deep. She has a potentially strong appeal to as much as 40% of the electorate. She flatters many with the notion that they, too, could be in the White House. But properly handled, she shouldn’t be a major problem for the Democrats.

** OBAMA COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE RNC, AND HURRICANES SARAH AND GUSTAV. From my new Huffington Post column.

** EXCERPTS FROM REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION KEYNOTE SPEAKER RUDY GIULIANI. On the importance of this election: “This is a time for choosing - and to those Americans who still feel torn in this election, I’d like to suggest one way to think about the choice you have to make in 2008: You’re hiring someone to do a job - an important job that involves the safety and security of your family.”

On Gov. Sarah Palin: “Governor Palin represents a new generation. She’s already one of the most successful governors in America - and the most popular. And she already has more executive experience than the entire Democratic ticket. She’s led a city and a state. She’s reduced taxes and government spending. And she’s actually done something about moving America toward energy independence - taking on the oil companies while encouraging more energy exploration here at home. Taxpayers have an advocate in Sarah Palin - she even sold the former governor’s private plane on E-Bay.”

On the Republican Party’s vision for a stronger America - and a freer world: “And as we look to the future never let us forget that - when we are at our best - we are the Party that expands Freedom. We began as a party dedicated to freeing people from slavery… And we are still the party that is willing to fight for freedom at home and around the world. We are the party that wants to expand individual freedom and economic freedom… because we believe that the secret of America’s success is not central government, it is self-government. …And we are the party that believes unapologetically in America’s essential greatness - that we are a shining city on the hill, a beacon of freedom that inspires people everywhere to reach for a better world.”

** SCHWARZENEGGER RIPS ABSENT LEGISLATORS, RECORD LATE BUDGET. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today ripped into the Legislature for the record state budget impasse. “We have seen already the Democrats introduce their budget. They’re asking for a tax increase of $10 billion. That was voted down,” Schwarzenegger said. “Then you have the Republicans who are now doing their budget even though it is 2 1/2 months late. And it relies on borrowing. That won’t work and it will be voted down.”

State Senate leader Don Perata has demanded that Republicans produce the cuts-and-borrowing budget they’ve been talking about. It turns out that it does not actually exist. Republicans say it will be ready by the end of the week. Meanwhile, a number of them are up in St. Paul, Minnesota for the Republican national convention.

** CALIFORNIA LEGISLATORS AT THE CONVENTION. I’m told there are at least five Republican state legislators at the national convention. Despite the chronic state budget crisis which ultimately kept all but one Democratic legislator out of the Denver convention. And kept Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger from kicking off the convention in prime time. State Senator Abel Maldonado is speaking to the convention.


John McCain’s campaign presents Sarah Palin in this web video. The rookie Alaska governor and former small town mayor speaks tonight at the Republican National Convention.

** TEAM MCCAIN PLAYS THE SEXISM CARD, DAY 2. After attacking the Obama campaign yesterday for “sexism” in its (rather light) criticism of the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate, the McCain campaign today attacked the media.

At a presser, Republican Victory chair Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, compained that the media is being sexist in its coverage of Palin. Former Massachusetts Governor Jane Swift said: “Governor Palin’s experience is in running a state. Barack Obama’s experience, as he himself has said, is in running a campaign.”

Former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin, who has a son with Down’s Syndrome, said she is “absolutely incensed” at the idea that Palin’s newborn baby with Down’s Syndrome should prevent her from running. Tennessee Congressswoman Marsha Blackburn claimed that Palin takes on Big Oil. “Barack Obama runs around and talks about taking on the oil companies. Sarah Palin has done that.”

** REPUBLICANS REGROUP FOR TONIGHT. Fresh from the traumas of Hurricanes Gustav and Sarah, the Republican national convention continues to rejigger its schedule. At a morning briefing, it was announced that in the main prime time hour tonight, 7 to 8 PM Pacific, Rudy Giuliani will deliver the speech once considered the keynote of Monday night. Then a new video introducing Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will be played. Then the controversial McCain running mate herself will deliver her highly anticipated speech. Expect it to be short and punchy. Then the convention will conduct a relatively brief roll call for the nomination of John McCain.

Earlier, former California high tech CEOs Meg Whitman (eBay) and Carly Fiorina (Hewlett-Packard) will speak. Along with presidential runner’s up Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

At some point, this convention is going to start tearing into Barack Obama. He’s gotten pretty much of a free ride the last two nights, despite Fred Thompson’s rather brief and not especially effective efforts last night.

The Morning Column: PALIN’S BIG NIGHT AND BUSH/CHENEY MIA.

It’s Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s big night coming up. Palin, whose biggest office until 2007 was the mayoralty of Wasilla, Alaska — current population 6,715, according to the City of Wasilla — has been mostly out of sight since her debut last Friday at a Dayton, Ohio rally with John McCain.

Palin has been getting briefed in on the issues. This is the first time I can recall that a vice presidential nominee has given no interviews and has done no press avails for the better part of a week following his or her unveiling.

Notice that I said “her.” Palin is not the first woman vice presidential nominee. New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro holds that distinction, dating back to 1984. I know this first-hand, as I cast my delegate vote at the Democratic national convention for her that year. It proved to be a mistake.

While Ferraro was a credible figure, very well-versed in national and international issues, she was a token. It was stunt casting by a presidential candidate, a decades-long Washington figure, Walter Mondale, hungry to show that he, too, was a change agent.

Back to Palin. The hard right base of the Republican Party loves her. Why would they not? She is for creationism, the religious fundamentalist notion that scientific evolution is false.

She is a greenhouse effect denier. A convenient stance for someone who pushes for oil drilling everywhere. (Incidentally, as longtime NWN readers know, the Arctic ice cap is melting once again, creating the fabled “Northwest Passage” at the top of the world. Which is why Russia staked a claim to the North Pole last year, as many experts believe that 25% of the world’s remaining oil and natural gas reserves are under what was once the intractable ice cap of the North Pole.)

She’s against abortion in all circumstances, including for victims of rape and incest. She is a staunch opponent of sex education. It would be easy to make the point that her underage daughter, now pregnant out of wedlock, the father being some tuff boy hockey player whose now-scrubbed MySpace page said he never wants to have kids and will kick anybody’s ass, is a victim of this stance. But I’ll leave that to the lifestyle press and the ADD media.

Palin, who had only met John McCain once before he picked her, seems bright and glib. I was aware that she was on a long list for the vice presidency. I took a look at her, and didn’t look again.

Alaska is a state of well under 700,000 people. That is smaller than not only all 40 state senate districts in California, but all 435 congressional districts in America.

Prior to 2007, Palin’s claim to fame was that she had been mayor of Wasilla, Alaska. Which, as I’ve noted, Karl Rove erroneously stated on Fox News early last Friday morning was the second largest city in Alaska. Not even close. I reported then that there were 8000 people in Wasilla. Actually, it’s 6,715, according to the city itself. When Palin was elected mayor, it was under 5000.

I have obtained Palin’s election records, and will go over them in detail later today. But what is interesting to know is that, when Palin was first elected mayor of Wasilla, she received 651 votes. That was a landslide election for her, with over 60% of the city vote.

As I look at Palin’s record, which prior to 2007 is based on her long tenure as a city council member and mayor of Wasilla, something occurred to me. I held more important local government posts than Palin. When I was in high school.

And looking at Palin’s record in tiny Wasilla, I accomplished more as a local government official. When I was in high school.

Now, frankly, it’s not much, though it’s had a positive effect on the lives of more people than Palin has had as a local government official. But then, I’m not disappointed by being passed over by John McCain for the vice presidency, though I’ve spent more time around him than Palin has.

You know, all this stuff about Palin’s private life, which extends to the public sphere with her firing of Alaska’s public safety commissioner for his refusal to fire Palin’s former brother-in-law. I don’t care about that. Put it all off limits, even though her private life has extended into the public sphere. McCain’s pal David Letterman likens Palin and her family to Jerry Springer guests. Clearly, Letterman is an elitist. McCain, who courted celebrities and now makes fun of them, has been on Letterman more than all but a few movie stars.

Since the bulk of Palin’s executive experience is non-serious, here is a more serious question. How would Palin do against Vladimir Putin? It’s not an idle question, as about 20% of the vice presidents have become president, and John McCain, who had several bouts of cancer, endured terrible tortures at the hands of his Communist captors and as a result is not athletic, would be the oldest person ever elected to the presidency.

I’ve not met Sarah Palin. It didn’t seem a priority. I have met Vladimir Putin. A bit more of a priority. I’m not in the least surprised that this elite former KGB officer has outwitted George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Well, you see where this is going.

Speaking of Bush and Cheney, neither will actually be present at their own party’s national convention.

President Bush, who briefly addressed the convention last night via satellite, out of prime time, is the first sitting president of the United States not to attend his own party convention in 40 years. Who is the last to hold this distinction? Lyndon Johnson, during the height of the Vietnam War.

Vice President Cheney set off on a big foreign tour for the week of the Republican national convention. His job approval rating is unbelievably low, down in the teens. He’s off, I believe today in Italy, in advance of his trip to Georgia, Ukraine, and Poland. To assure them that they have America’s full backing against resurgent Russia.

Empty words for Georgia, whose misbegotten leader Mikheil Saakashvili so misinterpreted the support of Bush and Cheney and McCain that he launched a disastrously backfiring offensive against South Ossetia. For his troubles, he got a swiftly shattered military and Russian dominance over much of what he thought was his country.

Oh, as I expected, the European Union summit on the Georgian crisis resulted in nothing. A few harshly-worded press releases. Putin, I suspect, could care less.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama, having taken the measure of Hurricanes Sarah and Gustav, is in New Philadelphia and Dillonvale, Ohio.

Joe Biden is in Fort Myers and Sarasota, Florida.

John McCain is in Columbus, Ohio and Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Sarah Palin is in St. Paul, Minnesota.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and conversations in and around the Capitol, mostly focused on the chronic California budget crisis.

** 13 REASONS WHY IT’S, AH, PALIN. Sarah who?

John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including word early this morning on Fox and other cable news nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. McCain is a gambler, literally, and this is a big roll of the dice.

This is a bold gambit, intended in large measure to take the focus off Barack Obama’s spectacular speech last night. Is Sarah Palin, who would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as vice president to John McCain, qualified to serve as replacement POTUS for the oldest president in American history, tortured for five-and-a-half years as POW?

Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of the 40 state senate districts in California.

Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.

Actually, it’s not anywhere near that — perhaps the Wizard of Oz should stay behind the curtain — and is in fact a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.

Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no national security background — 72nd birthday. So Sarah Palin would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. …

So in the end, ironically, given his status as America’s most anti-Russian politician, McCain is presenting a potential vice president from the only American state with a Russian name. Alyaska was part of Russia. But America bought it from the Russian Empire for $7 million in 1867. We’ll see if America buys this new product from the farthest Northwest. … From Friday’s Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $108 per barrel range. The oil markets are relieved that Hurricane Gustav missed the Gulf of Mexico oil platforms, all of which were evacuated.

The drop of over $39 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

September 2nd, 2008 7:25 am

Scrambling Republicans, And More


Sarah Palin was a co-director of the 527 political committee of Senator Ted Stevens, shown here in this ad for Palin’s 2006 Alaska gubernatorial campaign. Stevens, a notorious pork barrel pol repeatedly attacked by John McCain, has been indicted on several counts of political corruption.

** USC IS #1 IN THE NATION. Now, on a very important topic, USC has vaulted to number one in the national college football rankings following a big win, 52-7, over Virginia on Saturday. The Trojans, ranked #3 in the country going in to the season, moved past Georgia and Ohio State. USC, led by junior quarterback Mark Sanchez, plays Ohio State the weekend after next at LA Memorial Coliseum.

** WHY FRED THOMPSON TONIGHT INSTEAD OF RUDY GIULIANI? So why is Fred Thompson speaking tonight in prime time rather than designated keynoter speaker Rudy Giuliani, whose gig last night was postponed due to the landfall of Hurricane Gustav? Tonight, as I’ve written below, is mostly about the John McCain Story, with tonight’s theme “Service To Country.” One of the underlying theories of the McCain campaign, incidentally, is that personalities will trump issues this year. Perhaps because McCain is on the wrong electoral side of most issues.

Thompson ran a dreadful campaign for president in the primaries, which I rather expected after spending 2000 words in a diplomatic, immediate analysis piece on his nervous, lackluster Tonight Show announcement of candidacy. Giuliani did better as a candidate than Thompson, though not much. But Giuliani is a more credible figure nationally and internationally, due to a pretty successful record of governance and, of course, his fame from 9/11.

So why Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and actor rather than Giuliani, who probably speaks tomorrow night, on the same night as the designated vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin? That may be a partial answer right there, though Palin is so hot now that she will hardly be overshadowed by Giuliani at this point.

Two other reasons for Thompson. One, he’s an old friend of McCain’s, his former Senate seatmate, though he ran against him this year. Two, perhaps more important, he’s a Southerner.

Giuliani doesn’t do anything for McCain in Southern states that are now in play, such as North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. All states in which McCain is now going to have campaign, though Virginia is no surprise.

Thompson is also someone more comfortable playing an anti-press card than Giuliani. He will say that Palin has put the Democrats “and their allies in the media” into a “panic.”

I’m not aware of any Democrats who are panicked by Sarah Palin. In the press, it’s more a sense of wonderment. Along, naturally, with the encroaching tabloidism of the media, which not infrequently favors Republicans, as Bill Clinton can attest. Incidentally, Obama hit 50% in the Gallup daily tracking poll, a poll in which he generally does worse than the other major polls, for the first time today.

Thompson will also, now, take some shots at Obama. I don’t know that Obama will be worried about that. Lieberman will not take shots at Obama. For which Obama should be rather pleased.

** TEAM MCCAIN PLAYS THE SEXISM CARD. Statement by Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO and Republican National Victory Chair: “I am appalled by the Obama campaign’s attempts to belittle Governor Sarah Palin’s experience. The facts are that Sarah Palin has made more executive decisions as a Mayor and Governor than Barack Obama has made in his life. Because of Hillary Clinton’s historic run for the Presidency and the treatment she received, American women are more highly tuned than ever to recognize and decry sexism in all its forms. They will not tolerate sexist treatment of Governor Palin.”

** MCCAIN SURROGATES SCRAMBLING ON PALIN’S QUALIFICATIONS. John McCain’s surrogates are struggling a bit making the case for Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s qualifications to be vice president of the United States. Virtually all her experience is in local government. Until 2007, Palin’s biggest posts were as a city council member and mayor of Wasilla, current population, according to the city, of 6,715. When Palin was elected, it was well under 5000. As I mentioned yesterday, it occurred to me over the weekend that I held bigger local government posts than Palin. When I was in high school.

** TODAY’S RE-WORKED REPUBLICAN LINE-UP. The Republicans just had a briefing about their rejiggered national convention schedule, made necessary by Hurricane Gustav. Longtime campaign manager Rick Davis (Steve Schmidt is the new campaign director), senior communications advisor Adam Mendelsohn (Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s former communications director), and Republican National Chairman Mike Duncan laid out much of what will happen today in St. Paul. And some of what will happen on Wednesday and Thursday.

As I reported earlier, it’s pretty much all positive about the John McCain story. Joe Lieberman will close out the main prime time hour with an address called “The Original Maverick.” Fred Thompson, McCain’s old Senate seatmate, will talk about McCain and his service to country. Prior to Thompson and Lieberman’s speeches, before the main prime time hour, President Bush will appear by satellite from the White House, and First Lady Laura Bush will speak for three minutes.

Prior to that, there will be several presentations on the McCain story and positive themes, including the story of Cindy McCain’s trip to Bangladesh and the adoption of their daughter, a video about the Medal of Honor, and a presentation by Orson Swindle, a fellow resident of the infamous Hanoi Hilton.

What’s going on with Rudy Giuliani’s keynote address? He will speak tomorrow night. Will it be on the same night as Sarah Palin’s vice presidential speech, which would normally be on Wednesday night? Not entirely clear yet. She might go on Thursday night, same night as John McCain’s acceptance speech.

Palin has done no interviews or press avails since her surprise naming on Friday morning.

** SCRAMBLING REPUBLICANS. With their national convention operations and message disrupted by the twin hurricanes of Gustav and Sarah, John McCain and the rest of the national Republican Party are scrambling to get their long-planned quadrennila confab in St. Paul, Minnesota back on track.

Unlike yesterday, with the damage from Hurricane Gustav less than feared, the convention will resume at least a semblance of a full schedule today. But the schedule is still being developed.

Tonight’s keynote address was to have been delivered by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who was going to carry the attack against frontrunner Barack Obama on national security and geopolitical issues. But Giuliani is off tonight’s schedule, and it is as yet unclear when he will appear.

Instead of Giuliani, old McCain friends Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut senator and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, and Fred Thompson, the actor and former Tennessee senator who ran a non-starting presidential campaign this year, will talk about McCain’s background and the theme of service to the country. President Bush will also address the convention via satellite.

Will Giuliani deliver his keynote address tomorrow night? Perhaps. But Wednesday night is generally the night for the vice presidential nominee. That would be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Maybe she will go the following night, same night as John McCain’s acceptance speech, now slated to be in person.

As for Hurricane Sarah, her pick continues to be very popular with the right-wing activist base of the Republican Party. But distracting facts continue to come out about the 44-year old politician whose claim to fame until 2007 was her tenure as mayor and city councilmember for Wasilla, population 6700. (Smaller, according to the city itself, than I initially reported on Friday, and certainly not, as Karl Rove claimed that morning on Fox News, Alaska’s second largest city.)

It turns out that, rather than oppose the infamous “Bridge To Nowhere” pork barrel project John McCain crusaded against, she actually supported it, as the Anchorage Daily News points out. Until she got into office, when it was already going down in flames. Then she took the money and used it for something else.

Rather than a reformer opponent of McCain’s sworn enemy, US Senator Ted Stevens, indicted on several counts of political corruption, Palin was his ally, serving as a co-director of a Stevens political action committee and happily accepting the TV endorsement ad you see above, which has been removed from Palin’s web site.

Palin was also a member of the Alaskan Independence Party while a Wasilla city councilwoman in the ’90s. That was a secessionist group. She registered as a Republican before she ran for mayor. The McCain campaign, responding a day after the ABC report, says she was a Republican all along, at least as long as she was registered to vote. But she could also have been a member of the AIP, which she has frequently praised and for which she provided a video address at its latest convention.

Then there’s the distracting controversy over her personal life, which I’m loathe to get into, but you’re probably already hearing about.

The McCain campaign yesterday dispatched a dozen lawyers and operatives to Alaska to do a deeper vetting of the senator’s new running mate.

** 13 REASONS WHY IT’S, AH, PALIN. Sarah who?

John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including word early this morning on Fox and other cable news nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. McCain is a gambler, literally, and this is a big roll of the dice.

This is a bold gambit, intended in large measure to take the focus off Barack Obama’s spectacular speech last night. Is Sarah Palin, who would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as vice president to John McCain, qualified to serve as replacement POTUS for the oldest president in American history, tortured for five-and-a-half years as POW?

Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of the 40 state senate districts in California.

Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.

Actually, it’s not anywhere near that — perhaps the Wizard of Oz should stay behind the curtain — and is in fact a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.

Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no national security background — 72nd birthday. So Sarah Palin would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. …

So in the end, ironically, given his status as America’s most anti-Russian politician, McCain is presenting a potential vice president from the only American state with a Russian name. Alyaska was part of Russia. But America bought it from the Russian Empire for $7 million in 1867. We’ll see if America buys this new product from the farthest Northwest. … From Friday’s Huffington Post column.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Chicago, assessing the situation with regard to putting more campaign resources into the Hurricane Gustav recovery, and the bizarre scenario in the campaign as a whole.

Joe Biden is in Deerfield Beach and West Palm Beach, Florida for town hall meetings.

John McCain is off the campaign trail.

Sarah Palin is in St. Paul, Minnesota.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds private meetings today in and around the Capitol. His central focus? The chronic California budget crisis. Schwarzenegger, as anticipated, cancelled plans to open the Republican National Convention last night in prime time.

** DARK KNIGHT AMERICA: MOVIE IS FASTEST TO $500 MILLION. The Dark Knight passed the $500 million mark at the domestic box office on Sunday. Coming out of the Labor Day weekend, its take is a whopping $504.8 million. The Dark Knight took 46 days to reach the $500 million mark. The only other movie to make it that high, Titanic, took 98 days to do it. Here’s my recent column on the significance of The Dark Knight.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $108 per barrel range. The oil markets are relieved that Hurricane Gustav missed the Gulf of Mexico oil platforms, all of which were evacuated.

The drop of over $39 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

September 1st, 2008 9:45 am

Monday Morning Quarterback


Hurricane Katrina footage shot by storm chaser Warren Faidley.

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.

Happy Labor Day! A very unusual week on tap in politics.

In presidential politics, major moves all hinge on a disaster, namely the impact of a huge extreme weather event. And on today’s European Union meeting on the Russia-Georgia War.

In California politics, major moves all hinge on another disaster, the inability of the state’s anti-government and ultra-government factions to deal with the state’s chronic budget crisis.

At the very least, John McCain will lose at least half of his Republican national convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, a shindig that has been intended to concentrate four days of fire on Barack Obama, whose masterful Democratic convention acceptance speech to 85,000 roaring supporters at Denver’s football stadium put a strong capstone on an unevent Democratic national convention. So that’s bad for McCain.

McCain also loses the presence of President Bush and Vice President Cheney, both of whom have cancelled their appearances at the Republican convention in favor of directing the response to Hurricane Gustav. The Bush/Cheney administration famously bungled its handling of Hurricane Katrina three years ago. Which they now acknowledge.

Bush and Cheney’s absence from the convention is a good thing for McCain, given Bush’s terrible job approval ratings and Cheney’s even worse ratings. But they will be much in the news around Hurricane Gustav. Hopefully overseeing a better result than before. But reminding the country of how they let New Orleans — aided by incompetent Democratic local and state officials, mind you — drown while they played golf and did various other stereotypical things.

Depending upon how badly Hurricane Gustav goes, and the full brunt of it has missed New Orleans, passing to the west, but threatens the rest of the Gulf Coast, McCain may deliver his Thursday convention acceptance speech by satellite from the disaster zone. That would probably be a plus for McCain, whose oratorical skills are so overshadowed by those of Obama as to make for a farcical comparison.

But a McCain looking concerned and matter of fact, perhaps in disaster garb in front of survivors, would look like a hands-on president and avoid the harsh comparisons between the two men’s speaking skills and sharp disparity in ability to draw a large crowd.


Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the controversial Republican vice presidential candidate, had her national debut Friday in Dayton, Ohio.

Then there’s Sarah Palin, the surprise factor, whose selection as McCain’s prospective vice president has turned on the party’s right-wing base due to her full-throated fundamentalism but raises serious questions of judgment as regards her selection and her own qualifications. Prior to becoming governor of Alaska, a state with a population less than that of any of the country’s 535 congressional districts or any of California’s 40 state senate districts, her experience was as a largely ceremonial mayor of a town with a population of 6,715.

As I look into her time as mayor of Wasilla, the principal post she held until 2007, I realize that I held more powerful local government posts than Palin. When I was in high school.

There’s a big private controversy swirling around Palin as well. Readers will recall that although I looked into what became the John Edwards scandal last fall  –  my read, and I may get into this later, was that the scandal was real  –  I didn’t pursue it. That’s not the sort of thing I do.

So there’s much to play out on the front of the freshman governor of Alaska.

There’s also much to play out this week with regard to Russia. The European Union is meeting today to try to formulate a response to Russia’s continued military presence in Georgia. A few weeks after swiftly shattering the US-backed Georgian military, after Georgia launched a boneheaded offensive against the breakaway republic of South Ossetia, Russia maintains major forces there, in the other breakaway province of Abkhazia, and in some parts of central Georgia. In addition, when the US Navy last week attempted to send a powerful Aegis destroyer, USS McFaul, dispatched with a small load of humanitarian supplies, into Georgia’s major port, Russia blocked the move with a show of force. The Navy backed away and went to a secondary Georgian port.

My read? No European sanctions against Russia.

We’ll see what if anything plays out in California politics this week.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was scheduled to open the Republican national convention in prime time tonight. But he cancelled his appearance yesterday, as expected, due to the ongoing state budget impasse.

There’s a lot of wheel-spinning going on, but not a lot of action. I’m not even going to bother to look at the latest details on a holiday weekend. But here’s the situation, same as always.

The solution to the state’s chronic budget crisis is to raise some revenues, cut some programs, and institute budget reforms to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. But the anti-government faction which dominates legislative Republicans and the ultra-government faction which dominates legislative Democrats can’t come together around this reality. Many on the right are insisting on more big borrowing and cuts. It’s a preposterous situation.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Detroit and Monroe, Michigan and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Obama will scrap regular campaign plans on Tuesday to deal with Hurricane Gustav.

John McCain is in Toledo, Ohio and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Joe Biden is in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Biden cancelled his plan to march in Pittsburgh’s Labor Day parade because of Hurricane Gustav

Sarah Palin is in St. Paul, Minnesota for the Republican National Convention.

** 13 REASONS WHY IT’S, AH, PALIN. Sarah who?

John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including word early this morning on Fox and other cable news nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. McCain is a gambler, literally, and this is a big roll of the dice.

This is a bold gambit, intended in large measure to take the focus off Barack Obama’s spectacular speech last night. Is Sarah Palin, who would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as vice president to John McCain, qualified to serve as replacement POTUS for the oldest president in American history, tortured for five-and-a-half years as POW?

Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of the 40 state senate districts in California.

Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.

Actually, it’s not anywhere near that — perhaps the Wizard of Oz should stay behind the curtain — and is in fact a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.

Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no national security background — 72nd birthday. So Sarah Palin would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. …

So in the end, ironically, given his status as America’s most anti-Russian politician, McCain is presenting a potential vice president from the only American state with a Russian name. Alyaska was part of Russia. But America bought it from the Russian Empire for $7 million in 1867. We’ll see if America buys this new product from the farthest Northwest. … From Friday’s Huffington Post column.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds private meetings today in and around the Capitol. His central focus? The chronic California budget crisis. Schwarzenegger, as anticipated, yesterday cancelled plans for him to open the Republican National Convention tonight in prime time.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $111 to $115 per barrel range. The oil markets are relieved that Hurricane Gustav missed the Gulf of Mexico oil platforms, all of which were evacuated.

The drop of over $32 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

August 30th, 2008 9:30 am

Labor Day Weekend Edition


New Orleans is being evacuated as Hurricane Gustav approaches. Three years after the governmental debacle of Katrina, the Republican convention is turning into a sideshow.

** BUSH AND CHENEY OUT OF REPUBLICAN CONVENTION, MCCAIN MAY GIVE ACCEPTANCE SPEECH FROM DISASTER ZONE. Hurricane Gustav is expected to make landfall on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. So President Bush and Vice President Cheney, whose administration spectacularly bungled Hurricane Katrina three years ago this week, a gross failure shared by local and state government in Louisiana, will not be in St. Paul, Minnesota for the Republican national convention. In addition, John McCain is strongly considering delivering his acceptance speech to the convention from somewhere within the disaster zone.

Now, here’s a question. Is the collapse of the Republican national convention into a political sideshow a bad thing for McCain, or a good thing? One thing is for sure. It means that years of planning for a powerful week for the Republican nominee are reduced to improvisational moves, much of it, ironically, dictated by extreme weather.

** SUNDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden are in Toledo, Ohio and Battle Creek, Michigan.

John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Jackson, Mississippi and O’Fallon, Missouri.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE: SUNDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol with a focus on the chronic California budget crisis. Unless there is a budget by Monday, which doesn’t appear likely, he will not open the Republican national convention in prime time, as he has been scheduled to do. A sad moment for him, to be sure.

Meanwhile, the Legislature is going through a series of complicated maneuvers this Labor Day weekend, as it has now achieved the distinction of the latest budget in California history. I could run through the various legislative permutations of the weekend, or I could explain it all as the usual Capitol wheel-spinning.

** PALIN SEEN BY VOTERS AS UNQUALIFIED. A new USA Today/Gallup Poll shows that Sarah Palin is seen as unqualified to be vice president. Only 39% say Palin’s qualified, a number that is below the baseline Republican vote in a national election and is by far the lowest since the selection of Dan Quayle in 1988. Democrat Joe Biden is seen as qualified by 57%.

There’s more to say about Palin, who has major contradictions in her sparse record, but it’s a holiday weekend and perhaps not that big a deal.


It’s opening weekend of the college football season. This is the video shown at the Friday team meeting of the USC Trojans. Best-in-the-West SC is on the road Saturday afternoon against Virginia. (USC won, 52-7).

** WELCOME TO WASILLA. POPULATION 6,715. Here is the web site for the City of Wasilla, Alaska. Designated Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin served as mayor of Wasilla until a year-and-a-half ago. As you see, her post as mayor consisted of presiding over city council meetings — she didn’t have a vote unless there was a tie — and presiding over various civic events.

The Wasilla City Council meets twice a month.

According to the city, Wasilla has a population of 6,715. Which is less than the 8000 I reported yesterday. And far less than Karl Rove implied early yesterday morning on Fox News, when he erroneously claimed that Wasilla is the second largest city in Alaska.

** LIEBERMAN WAS MCCAIN’S REAL FIRST CHOICE FOR VEEP. As I suspected. But he was vetoed by the far right wing of the Republican Party.

** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden are in Youngstown, Cleveland, and Dublin, Ohio.

John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Washington, Pennsylvania.

** 13 REASONS WHY IT’S, AH, PALIN. Sarah who?

John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including word early this morning on Fox and other cable news nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. McCain is a gambler, literally, and this is a big roll of the dice.

This is a bold gambit, intended in large measure to take the focus off Barack Obama’s spectacular speech last night. Is Sarah Palin, who would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as vice president to John McCain, qualified to serve as replacement POTUS for the oldest president in American history, tortured for five-and-a-half years as POW?

Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of the 40 state senate districts in California.

Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.

Actually, it’s not anywhere near that — perhaps the Wizard of Oz should stay behind the curtain — and is in fact a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.

Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no national security background — 72nd birthday. So Sarah Palin would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. …

So in the end, ironically, given his status as America’s most anti-Russian politician, McCain is presenting a potential vice president from the only American state with a Russian name. Alyaska was part of Russia. But America bought it from the Russian Empire for $7 million in 1867. We’ll see if America buys this new product from the farthest Northwest. … From yesterday’s column.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE: SATURDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol Saturday, with a focus on the chronic California budget crisis.

There is a “98% chance” that he will not be going to St. Paul, Minnesota, as scheduled to opening the Republican National Convention in prime time.

** OBAMA NEEDS BILL CLINTON. No big-time Democrat got more sideways with the rise of Barack Obama than the big dog himself, Bill Clinton. Wouldn’t it be ironic if it turned out that the former president needs to play a very crucial role in Obama’s elevation to the office he once held?

I think that, if Obama is to win, Clinton does need to play that very crucial role, and he can play that very crucial role. From what I know of Clinton’s schedule, he will be available, assuming that he and the Obama campaign can continue bridging what has been a very large gap. And from what I know of John McCain’s strategy, Bill Clinton can be an absolute difference maker in this election. He certainly gave a rousing speech for Obama last night in Denver.

Now, I am not historically a big Bill Clinton fan. While I’ve found him likable and smart for a couple of decades, I worked against him when he ran for president in 1992. After he became president, I wrote a number of critical columns and articles about him and his administration. I did come to admire the many innovative global good works of his post-presidency. But after seeing in early 2007 that Obama was the emerging figure in the presidential race, Clintonian tactics began to grate.

I think Bill Clinton played the key role in saving Hillary Clinton’s campaign after her big loss in Iowa. He gave her good advice, raised big doubts about Obama, and played the key role in reversing Obama’s lead amongst blue collar voters in New Hampshire. Obama skidded to a stunning loss. … From my recent Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed at $115.46 per barrel on Friday. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

The drop of over $32 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Barack Obama delivers what former Reagan and Nixon speechwriter Pat Buchanan calls the best convention address in history to 85,000 people in Denver.

**  THE POPULATION OF WASILLA, ALASKA MAY HAVE BEEN SMALLER THAN I REPORTED. This town, which is not the second largest city in Alaska, despite what Karl Rove erroneously said early this morning on Fox News, has a population that I reported in my latest column as 8000 people. Which, I think I said on the radio or foreign TV, I’m losing track, is not large enough to have interested me when I was looking at winning California city council majorities many years ago. Commenters on my column say that Wasilla, during the time that brand-new Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, who has been tiny Alaska’s governor for 18 months, had a population of only 5000. Making her executive experience even more of the speed trap variety. I have an e-mail into a top McCain campaign figure to straighten out this question.

** PALIN IS A CREATIONIST. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, John McCain’s surprise pick to be his prospective vice president, revealed herself to be a proponent of so-called creation science during his narrowly victorious 2006 gubernatorial race.

“Teach both,” opined Palin during an October 2006 debate. “You know, don’t be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important, and it’s so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both.”

Creationism holds that the scientific theory of evolution is false, and that God created the world and everything in it in seven days. This issue was a major problem for Republican president candidate Mike Huckabee, the Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor.

The US Supreme Court has ruled that creationism is an unconstitutional injection of fundamentalist religion into the public schools.

** BUDGET VOTE FAILS IN CALIFORNIA STATE SENATE. The latest attempt by Democratic legislative leaders to push through a state budget failed today in the state Senate.

** MCCAIN AND PALIN BARELY KNOW EACH OTHER. In an interview with Roll Call earlier this month, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin revealed that she had only met John McCain one or two times.

George Herbert Walker Bush knew Dan Quayle, who was a U.S. senator, far better than that.

** OBAMA SETS TV VIEWING RECORD. Barack Obama’s Democratic presidential nomination acceptance speech set the all-time record for TV viewership of a convention speech, far outstripping past performances. Some 38.4 million people watched Obama’s speech, seen above, more than viewed the record-setting opening and closing ceremonies of the 2008 Olympic Games and the Academy Awards.

** 13 REASONS WHY IT’S, AH, PALIN. Sarah who?

John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including word early this morning on Fox and other cable news nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. McCain is a gambler, literally, and this is a big roll of the dice.

This is a bold gambit, intended in large measure to take the focus off Barack Obama’s spectacular speech last night. Is Sarah Palin, who would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as vice president to John McCain, qualified to serve as replacement POTUS for the oldest president in American history, tortured for five-and-a-half years as POW?

Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of the 40 state senate districts in California.

Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.

Actually, it’s not anywhere near that — perhaps the Wizard of Oz should stay behind the curtain — and is in fact a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.

Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no national security background — 72nd birthday. So Sarah Palin would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. …

So in the end, ironically, given his status as America’s most anti-Russian politician, McCain is presenting a potential vice president from the only American state with a Russian name. Alyaska was part of Russia. But America bought it from the Russian Empire for $7 million in 1867. We’ll see if America buys this new product from the farthest Northwest. … From my new column.

** IT’S WHO?

John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including early word this morning on Fox and other cable nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of 40 state Senate districts in California.

Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.

Actually, it’s not, and is a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.

Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no military background — 72nd birthday.

More to follow.

** OBAMA NEEDS BILL CLINTON. No big-time Democrat got more sideways with the rise of Barack Obama than the big dog himself, Bill Clinton. Wouldn’t it be ironic if it turned out that the former president needs to play a very crucial role in Obama’s elevation to the office he once held?

I think that, if Obama is to win, Clinton does need to play that very crucial role, and he can play that very crucial role. From what I know of Clinton’s schedule, he will be available, assuming that he and the Obama campaign can continue bridging what has been a very large gap. And from what I know of John McCain’s strategy, Bill Clinton can be an absolute difference maker in this election. He certainly gave a rousing speech for Obama last night in Denver.

Now, I am not historically a big Bill Clinton fan. While I’ve found him likable and smart for a couple of decades, I worked against him when he ran for president in 1992. After he became president, I wrote a number of critical columns and articles about him and his administration. I did come to admire the many innovative global good works of his post-presidency. But after seeing in early 2007 that Obama was the emerging figure in the presidential race, Clintonian tactics began to grate.

I think Bill Clinton played the key role in saving Hillary Clinton’s campaign after her big loss in Iowa. He gave her good advice, raised big doubts about Obama, and played the key role in reversing Obama’s lead amongst blue collar voters in New Hampshire. Obama skidded to a stunning loss. … From my new Huffington Post column.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden are in Denver, Colorado and Beaver, Pennsylvania.

John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Dayton, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

** DISTRACT AND DETRACT: MCCAIN COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE D.N.C., AND HIMSELF. While the Democrats continue rolling out their convention and the Obama-Biden ticket, Team McCain is playing it tough, trying to disrupt Barack Obama’s storyline at most turns of the media cycle. Free from the no doubt horrifying responsibility to run positive TV ads during the Olympics after it was brought to their attention that John McCain is the only one ever to have run negative ads, the campaign is back to its all-attack ways.

McCain’s fast and tough new campaign, under new campaign director Steve Schmidt — who I know very well from his direction of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s landslide re-election and profiled here — is making a real race of this, when it shouldn’t be. Schmidt believes in winning or at least muddying the waters at every phase of the news cycle. Incidentally, there is no reason why Schmidt’s tactics can’t be used against McCain. The media, mind you, is not going to change. … From my recent column.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING ON BUDGET CRISIS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger talks about the need to pass some version of his budget at a press conference with the County Supervisors Association of California. The event goes off at 10:15 AM at the San Diego County Administrative Center. It will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $118 per barrel.

The drop of over $29 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Former President Bill Clinton delivers a stemwinding address at last night’s Democratic National Convention in Denver.

** OBAMA’S BIG SPEECH. Good Lord, he’s done it again. And he brought his baseball bat. Meanwhile, I’ll be thinking on this. Clearly, a pretty good speech …

The McCain campaign response is on the meager side: “Tonight, Americans witnessed a misleading speech that was so fundamentally at odds with the meager record of Barack Obama. When the temple comes down, the fireworks end, and the words are over, the facts remain: Senator Obama still has no record of bipartisanship, still opposes offshore drilling, still voted to raise taxes on those making just $42,000 per year, and still voted against funds for American troops in harm’s way. The fact remains: Barack Obama is still not ready to be president.”

** DRUDGE GETS IT WRONG ON MCCAIN VEEP SELECTION. It’s so surprising. The Drudge Report, which breathlessly reported earlier today that the McCain campaign would “leak” the running mate selection this afternoon and “confirm” it later, is wrong. No kidding. But this obvious ploy did get some of the very credulous members of the media to eat into Barack Obama’s coverage.

** EXCERPTS FROM BARACK OBAMA’S ACCEPTANCE SPEECH TONIGHT.

“Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story – of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

“It is that promise that has always set this country apart – that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

“It is why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women – students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors — found the courage to keep it alive.

“We meet at one of those defining moments – a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.

“Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay and tuition that is beyond your reach.

“These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed presidency of George W. Bush.

“America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.”

“This moment – this election – is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought