Barack Obama delivers what former Reagan and Nixon speechwriter Pat Buchanan calls the best convention address in history to 85,000 people in Denver.
** THE POPULATION OF WASILLA, ALASKA MAY HAVE BEEN SMALLER THAN I REPORTED. This town, which is not the second largest city in Alaska, despite what Karl Rove erroneously said early this morning on Fox News, has a population that I reported in my latest column as 8000 people. Which, I think I said on the radio or foreign TV, I’m losing track, is not large enough to have interested me when I was looking at winning California city council majorities many years ago. Commenters on my column say that Wasilla, during the time that brand-new Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, who has been tiny Alaska’s governor for 18 months, had a population of only 5000. Making her executive experience even more of the speed trap variety. I have an e-mail into a top McCain campaign figure to straighten out this question.
“Teach both,” opined Palin during an October 2006 debate. “You know, don’t be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important, and it’s so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both.”
Creationism holds that the scientific theory of evolution is false, and that God created the world and everything in it in seven days. This issue was a major problem for Republican president candidate Mike Huckabee, the Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor.
The US Supreme Court has ruled that creationism is an unconstitutional injection of fundamentalist religion into the public schools.
** BUDGET VOTE FAILS IN CALIFORNIA STATE SENATE. The latest attempt by Democratic legislative leaders to push through a state budget failed today in the state Senate.
John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including word early this morning on Fox and other cable news nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. McCain is a gambler, literally, and this is a big roll of the dice.
This is a bold gambit, intended in large measure to take the focus off Barack Obama’s spectacular speech last night. Is Sarah Palin, who would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as vice president to John McCain, qualified to serve as replacement POTUS for the oldest president in American history, tortured for five-and-a-half years as POW?
Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of the 40 state senate districts in California.
Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.
Actually, it’s not anywhere near that — perhaps the Wizard of Oz should stay behind the curtain — and is in fact a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.
Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no national security background — 72nd birthday. So Sarah Palin would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. …
So in the end, ironically, given his status as America’s most anti-Russian politician, McCain is presenting a potential vice president from the only American state with a Russian name. Alyaska was part of Russia. But America bought it from the Russian Empire for $7 million in 1867. We’ll see if America buys this new product from the farthest Northwest. … From my new column.
** IT’S WHO?
John McCain, after a lengthy tease of multiple candidates, including early word this morning on Fox and other cable nets that Mitt Romney was the pick, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his pick for vice president of the United States. Palin has served for a year-and-a-half as governor of Alaska, a state of less than 700,000. For perspective, that is a smaller population than contained in any of 40 state Senate districts in California.
Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, which Karl Rove early this morning on Fox News erroneously stated is the second largest city in Alaska.
Actually, it’s not, and is a town of only about 8000 people. Palin, 44, is a favorite of the anti-abortion right-wing base, Rush Limbaugh’s favorite, an alum of the University of Idaho who earned the Miss Congeniality title while competing for Miss Alaska. She is an advocate of drilling for oil everywhere, including in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve.
Today is the Vietnam War hero’s — that would be McCain, Palin has no military background — 72nd birthday.
More to follow.
** OBAMA NEEDS BILL CLINTON.No big-time Democrat got more sideways with the rise of Barack Obama than the big dog himself, Bill Clinton. Wouldn’t it be ironic if it turned out that the former president needs to play a very crucial role in Obama’s elevation to the office he once held?
I think that, if Obama is to win, Clinton does need to play that very crucial role, and he can play that very crucial role. From what I know of Clinton’s schedule, he will be available, assuming that he and the Obama campaign can continue bridging what has been a very large gap. And from what I know of John McCain’s strategy, Bill Clinton can be an absolute difference maker in this election. He certainly gave a rousing speech for Obama last night in Denver.
Now, I am not historically a big Bill Clinton fan. While I’ve found him likable and smart for a couple of decades, I worked against him when he ran for president in 1992. After he became president, I wrote a number of critical columns and articles about him and his administration. I did come to admire the many innovative global good works of his post-presidency. But after seeing in early 2007 that Obama was the emerging figure in the presidential race, Clintonian tactics began to grate.
I think Bill Clinton played the key role in saving Hillary Clinton’s campaign after her big loss in Iowa. He gave her good advice, raised big doubts about Obama, and played the key role in reversing Obama’s lead amongst blue collar voters in New Hampshire. Obama skidded to a stunning loss. …From my new Huffington Post column.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden are in Denver, Colorado and Beaver, Pennsylvania.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Dayton, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
** DISTRACT AND DETRACT: MCCAIN COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE D.N.C., AND HIMSELF. While the Democrats continue rolling out their convention and the Obama-Biden ticket, Team McCain is playing it tough, trying to disrupt Barack Obama’s storyline at most turns of the media cycle. Free from the no doubt horrifying responsibility to run positive TV ads during the Olympics after it was brought to their attention that John McCain is the only one ever to have run negative ads, the campaign is back to its all-attack ways.
McCain’s fast and tough new campaign, under new campaign director Steve Schmidt — who I know very well from his direction of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s landslide re-election and profiled here — is making a real race of this, when it shouldn’t be. Schmidt believes in winning or at least muddying the waters at every phase of the news cycle. Incidentally, there is no reason why Schmidt’s tactics can’t be used against McCain. The media, mind you, is not going to change. …From my recent column.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING ON BUDGET CRISIS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger talks about the need to pass some version of his budget at a press conference with the County Supervisors Association of California. The event goes off at 10:15 AM at the San Diego County Administrative Center. It will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The drop of over $29 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
Former President Bill Clinton delivers a stemwinding address at last night’s Democratic National Convention in Denver.
** OBAMA’S BIG SPEECH. Good Lord, he’s done it again. And he brought his baseball bat. Meanwhile, I’ll be thinking on this. Clearly, a pretty good speech …
The McCain campaign response is on the meager side: “Tonight, Americans witnessed a misleading speech that was so fundamentally at odds with the meager record of Barack Obama. When the temple comes down, the fireworks end, and the words are over, the facts remain: Senator Obama still has no record of bipartisanship, still opposes offshore drilling, still voted to raise taxes on those making just $42,000 per year, and still voted against funds for American troops in harm’s way. The fact remains: Barack Obama is still not ready to be president.”
** DRUDGE GETS IT WRONG ON MCCAIN VEEP SELECTION. It’s so surprising. The Drudge Report, which breathlessly reported earlier today that the McCain campaign would “leak” the running mate selection this afternoon and “confirm” it later, is wrong. No kidding. But this obvious ploy did get some of the very credulous members of the media to eat into Barack Obama’s coverage.
** EXCERPTS FROM BARACK OBAMA’S ACCEPTANCE SPEECH TONIGHT.
“Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story – of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.
“It is that promise that has always set this country apart – that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.
“It is why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women – students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors — found the courage to keep it alive.
“We meet at one of those defining moments – a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.
“Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay and tuition that is beyond your reach.
“These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed presidency of George W. Bush.
“America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.”
“This moment – this election – is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look just like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say: “Eight is enough.”
“Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we’ll also hear about those occasions when he’s broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.
“But the record’s clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time. Senator McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush was right more than ninety percent of the time? I don’t know about you, but I’m not ready to take a ten percent chance on change.”
“You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country. We measure progress by how many people can find a job that pays the mortgage; whether you can put away a little extra money at the end of each month so that you can someday watch your child receive her diploma. We measure progress in the 23 million new jobs that were created when Bill Clinton was President – when the average American family saw its income go up $7,500 instead of down $2,000 like it has under George Bush.
“We measure the strength of our economy not by the number of billionaires we have or the profits of the Fortune 500, but by whether someone with a good idea can take a risk and start a business, or whether the waitress who lives on tips can take a day off to look after a sick kid without losing her job – an economy that honors the dignity of work. The fundamentals we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great – a promise that is the only reason I am standing here tonight.”
“That’s the promise we need to keep. That’s the change we need right now. So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President.
“Change means a tax code that doesn’t reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it. Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.
“I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.
“I will cut taxes – cut taxes – for 95% of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.
“And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as President: in ten years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East. Washington has been talking about our oil addiction for the last thirty years, and John McCain has been there for twenty-six of them. In that time, he’s said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Senator McCain took office.
“Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stop-gap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close. As President, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I’ll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I’ll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I’ll invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy – wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can’t ever be outsourced.”
“We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don’t tell me that Democrats won’t defend this country. Don’t tell me that Democrats won’t keep us safe. The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans — Democrats and Republicans – have built, and we are to restore that legacy.
“As Commander-in-Chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home. I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing so that America is once more the last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.”
** QUIET PANDEMONIUM PRECEDES OBAMA’S BIG SPEECH. From what I can tell, about 100,000 people are trying to get into Denver’s Invesco Field for Barack Obama’s historic presidential nomination speech tonight. The stadium, home of the Denver Broncos, has 75,000 seats. Figure another 5000 or so on the football field.
Add in a cumbersome daily credentialing process, confusion about buses for VIPs and delegates, and only 50 magnetometers — obviously required by the Secret Service — and it’s taking about an hour and a half for people to get into the stadium. Once they get to its vicinity, that is …
** MCCAIN PLAYS IT CLASSY WITH A CHANGE-UP PITCH. John McCain’s new TV ad counter to Barack Obama’s big speech tonight is … congratulatory. And makes note of the historic occasion of the speech coming on this day, the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s “I Have A Dream” speech. You can watch it here.
** V.P. PAWLENTY? OR A BREAD CRUMB? There’s a report that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, a John McCain shortlister, has cleared his schedule the next few days. Of course, you can expect more of the dropping of bread crumbs today by Team McCain, as they seek to distract from Barack Obama’s big speech tonight.
** CALIFORNIA POLL: PPIC ON NOVEMBER INITIATIVES AND A FEW OTHER THINGS. Sorry, with so much going on, I forgot about this Public Policy Institute of California poll I got on Tuesday that was embargoed until 10 PM last night. It shows that the anti-gay marriage initiative is losing, the redistricting reform and parental notification for abortion initiatives are favored only by bare pluralities, and that a majority of Californians favor balancing the state budget through a mix of cuts and tax increases. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating, a healthy 49% at the end of July, is now at 43%. The Legislature’s approval rating is a mere 20%. Congress has a 22% approval rating, and President Bush has a 27% approval rating.
84% of California voters think the state budget impasse is a big problem. 44% say the problem should be solved through a combination of cuts and tax increases, 8% say tax increases, 38% say cuts, and only 4% say it should be done through borrowing (which appears to be the conservative Republican position, as legislative Republicans want to borrow and won’t say what cuts they want).
Also, the Drudge Report has obligingly led with speculation that John McCain may announce his vice presidential pick early. Say, late this afternoon.
All to get the focus off of Obama’s Democratic nomination acceptance speech.
** MCCAIN’S CROWD-BUILDING PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW’S BIG ANNOUNCEMENT. John McCain is expected to unveil his running mate tomorrow morning at Wright State University outside Dayton, Ohio. But he’s having trouble filling the hall. Still plenty of the 10,000 tickets left, according to the local paper.
In contrast, Barack Obama’s acceptance speech tonight at the football stadium home of the Denver Broncos, with 75,000 seats, has been sold out for weeks.
The Morning Column: CALIFORNIA LEADERS: 2010. Before we get to the big stories of the day, Barack Obama’s acceptance speech tonight at the home of the Denver Broncos, and speculation about John McCain’s running mate, to be announced tomorrow, let’s look at some California Democrats mentioned by the Great Mentioner as prospective successors to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
First, those who are not at the Democratic national convention. Who happen to be by far the biggest names.
U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, about whom I’m happy to fly to Vegas to bet on her not running, isn’t there. She broke her foot while on a walk up at Lake Tahoe the other weekend. I’ve been through the breathless speculation about her running for governor before, in 2003, when I told Arnold Schwarzenegger she would definitely not run, and in 1998. Feinstein was to have been the California delegation chair in Denver. But her absence is easily made up for the working delegation chairmanship of state Democratic chairman Art Torres coupled with Hillary Clinton’s California leader John Emerson, an LA investment banker, and Barack Obama’s California leader Steve Westly, about whom more below.
The frontrunner, should he choose to run, former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, is also not in Denver. As he puts it: “My work is in California.” Brown, a former Oakland mayor who is a two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, used this week to crack down on abuses by the state’s pot clubs and to plan future moves against greenhouse gas emissions.
So who is there?
The only potential candidate with an actual role at the Democratic national convention is former state Controller Steve Westly, the one-time eBay honcho who is now a leading greentech venture capitalist in Silicon Valley.
Westly, who ran a near-miss campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2006, is a big player in Barack Obama’s campaign, so he is pretty busy in Denver. The first California co-chair of the Obama campaign, a national finance co-chair for Obama, is the leader of the California Obama delegation. He’s the only one in the bunch who can immediately fund a big-time campaign by opening his checkbook.
The other potential candidates all backed Hillary Clinton, and as a result have little official role in the national convention.
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who I don’t expect to run for governor in 2010, was one of four national chairs of the Hillary campaign. He has managed to get sideways with the Obama campaign — there’s a longer explanation for that — and was not invited to address the Democratic national convention, notwithstanding the key role of Latino voters in this election. He has spoken to the California delegation breakfast and to a couple of Latino events.
San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has reportedly had the busiest schedule aside from that of Obama leader Westly. Newsom was a national co-chairman of the Hillary campaign, and made a number of derogatory comments about Obama. He, too, was not invited to address the national convention, despite his status as mayor of one of America’s most important cities. Newsom has done a lot of media interviews, though, and last night hosted an indie rock show sponsored, at first, by MoveOn.org, Pacific Gas & Electric, and a big telecom company whose name escapes me at the moment. Following protests from the lefty blogosphere, which Newsom is trying to cultivate, about corporate “greenwashing,” MoveOn dropped its sponsorship of the event. But Time magazine hosted Newsom at a panel for hot new politicians.
Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, a longtime Clinton backer who served as deputy secretary of the interior in Bill Clinton’s administration, addressed the California delegation breakfast, as did state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O’Connell, a favorite of the teachers union.
Incidentally, not much of a presence by Democratic legislators.
After some waffling by legislative leaders, they mostly decided to stay away, due to the optics of being seen partying in Denver while the chronic California budget crisis drags on in Sacramento.
One notable exception to the absence of Democratic legislators is former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who served as a national co-chairman of the Hillary campaign and is a member of the party’s national platform committee. He was very much in evidence in Denver yesterday, on the floor of the convention and elsewhere.
** OBAMA NEEDS BILL CLINTON.No big-time Democrat got more sideways with the rise of Barack Obama than the big dog himself, Bill Clinton. Wouldn’t it be ironic if it turned out that the former president needs to play a very crucial role in Obama’s elevation to the office he once held?
I think that, if Obama is to win, Clinton does need to play that very crucial role, and he can play that very crucial role. From what I know of Clinton’s schedule, he will be available, assuming that he and the Obama campaign can continue bridging what has been a very large gap. And from what I know of John McCain’s strategy, Bill Clinton can be an absolute difference maker in this election. He certainly gave a rousing speech for Obama last night in Denver.
Now, I am not historically a big Bill Clinton fan. While I’ve found him likable and smart for a couple of decades, I worked against him when he ran for president in 1992. After he became president, I wrote a number of critical columns and articles about him and his administration. I did come to admire the many innovative global good works of his post-presidency. But after seeing in early 2007 that Obama was the emerging figure in the presidential race, Clintonian tactics began to grate.
I think Bill Clinton played the key role in saving Hillary Clinton’s campaign after her big loss in Iowa. He gave her good advice, raised big doubts about Obama, and played the key role in reversing Obama’s lead amongst blue collar voters in New Hampshire. Obama skidded to a stunning loss. … From my new Huffington Post column.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Denver, Colorado. He accepts the Democratic presidential nomination in a speech at the city’s NFL stadium.
John McCain is in Sedona, Arizona. He is finalizing plans for the introduction of his running mate tomorrow in Dayton, Ohio, and for his convention speech next week.
Joe Biden is in Denver.
** DISTRACT AND DETRACT: MCCAIN COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE D.N.C., AND HIMSELF.While the Democrats continue rolling out their convention and the Obama-Biden ticket, Team McCain is playing it tough, trying to disrupt Barack Obama’s storyline at most turns of the media cycle. Free from the no doubt horrifying responsibility to run positive TV ads during the Olympics after it was brought to their attention that John McCain is the only one ever to have run negative ads, the campaign is back to its all-attack ways.
McCain’s fast and tough new campaign, under new campaign director Steve Schmidt — who I know very well from his direction of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s landslide re-election and profiled here — is making a real race of this, when it shouldn’t be. Schmidt believes in winning or at least muddying the waters at every phase of the news cycle. Incidentally, there is no reason why Schmidt’s tactics can’t be used against McCain. The media, mind you, is not going to change. …From my recent column.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and conversations in and around the Capitol today, focusing on the chronic California budget crisis.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $120 per barrel. Up again from yesterday on fear of extreme weather in the Gulf of Mexico.
The drop of over $31 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
Hillary Clinton delivered possibly the best speech of her career at last night’s Democratic national convention in Denver.
** D.N.C. WRAP-UP, AND MCCAIN VEEPSTAKES. I have to finish a column and do a couple other things, but … A strong speech by Joe Biden, despite some muffed words in the early going. He’s definitely comfortable and strong on the attack against John McCain, and that includes the geopolitics front which is regarded as McCain’s strong suit. … Good rapport between Biden et familia and Barack Obama, who made the impromptu visit to the convention hall I mentioned earlier today. Obama looked relaxed and strong, in command of the stage sans script or teleprompter. … Very strong performance by Bill Clinton, and now I finish writing up the next part of a not unlikely Clinton story. … On MSNBC, where things are getting a little out of control, and Foxonian, Mike Murphy predicted that Clinton will vote for John McCain. I e-mailed him to correct his false impression. … Speaking of McCain, his veepstakes seems to be down to three: Mitt Romney, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and Joe Lieberman. With Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison name thrown out there, too. My thoughts? Forget Hutchison, she brings nothing special other than gender. Lieberman is McCain’s pal, a comfort blanket. He was also a poor running mate to Democrat Al Gore in 2000, and a lousy (brief) Democratic presidential frontrunner in 2004. That’s before we get to the question of how Republicans would react to someone who, aside from his neoconservative geopolitical views, is a fairly standard moderate liberal Democrat who happens to really like some big corporations. Pawlenty is the safe choice, but not a good bet in a debate with Biden. Romney, well, you know my analysis of Mitt Romney.
** REMARKS OF FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON, AS JUST DELIVERED IN DENVER. I am honored to be here tonight to support Barack Obama. And to warm up the crowd for Joe Biden, though as you’ll soon see, he doesn’t need any help from me. I love Joe Biden, and America will too.
What a year we Democrats have had. The primary began with an all-star line up and came down to two remarkable Americans locked in a hard fought contest to the very end. The campaign generated so much heat it increased global warming.
In the end, my candidate didn’t win. But I’m very proud of the campaign she ran: she never quit on the people she stood up for, on the changes she pushed for, on the future she wants for all our children. And I’m grateful for the chance Chelsea and I had to tell Americans about the person we know and love.
I’m not so grateful for the chance to speak in the wake of her magnificent address last night. But I’ll do my best. Hillary told us in no uncertain terms that she’ll do everything she can to elect Barack Obama. That makes two of us. Actually that makes 18 million of us – because, like Hillary, I want all of you who supported her to vote for Barack Obama in November. Here’s why.
Our nation is in trouble on two fronts: The American Dream is under siege at home, and America’s leadership in the world has been weakened.
Middle class and low-income Americans are hurting, with incomes declining; job losses, poverty and inequality rising; mortgage foreclosures and credit card debt increasing; health care coverage disappearing; and a big spike in the cost of food, utilities, and gasoline.
Our position in the world has been weakened by too much unilateralism and too little cooperation; a perilous dependence on imported oil; a refusal to lead on global warming; a growing indebtedness and a dependence on foreign lenders; a severely burdened military; a backsliding on global non-proliferation and arms control agreements; and a failure to consistently use the power of diplomacy, from the Middle East to Africa to Latin America to Central and Eastern Europe.
Clearly, the job of the next President is to rebuild the American Dream and restore America’s standing in the world. Everything I learned in my eight years as President and in the work I’ve done since, in America and across the globe, has convinced me that Barack Obama is the man for this job.
He has a remarkable ability to inspire people, to raise our hopes and rally us to high purpose. He has the intelligence and curiosity every successful President needs. His policies on the economy, taxes, health care and energy are far superior to the Republican alternatives. He has shown a clear grasp of our foreign policy and national security challenges, and a firm commitment to repair our badly strained military. His family heritage and life experiences have given him a unique capacity to lead our increasingly diverse nation and to restore our leadership in an ever more interdependent world. The long, hard primary tested and strengthened him. And in his first presidential decision, the selection of a running mate, he hit it out of the park.
With Joe Biden’s experience and wisdom, supporting Barack Obama’s proven understanding, insight, and good instincts, America will have the national security leadership we need.
Barack Obama is ready to lead America and restore American leadership in the world. Ready to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States. Barack Obama is ready to be President of the United States.
He will work for an America with more partners and fewer adversaries. He will rebuild our frayed alliances and revitalize the international institutions which help to share the costs of the world’s problems and to leverage our power and influence. He will put us back in the forefront of the world’s fight to reduce nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and to stop global warming. He will continue and enhance our nation’s global leadership in an area in which I am deeply involved, the fight against AIDS, TB and malaria, including a renewal of the battle against HIV/AIDS here at home. He will choose diplomacy first and military force as a last resort. But in a world troubled by terror; by trafficking in weapons, drugs and people; by human rights abuses; by other threats to our security, our interests, and our values, when he cannot convert adversaries into partners, he will stand up to them.
Barack Obama also will not allow the world’s problems to obscure its opportunities. Everywhere, in rich and poor countries alike, hardworking people need good jobs; secure, affordable healthcare, food, and energy; quality education for their children; and economically beneficial ways to fight global warming. These challenges cry out for American ideas and American innovation. When Barack Obama unleashes them, America will save lives, win new allies, open new markets, and create new jobs for our people.
Most important, Barack Obama knows that America cannot be strong abroad unless we are strong at home. People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.
Look at the example the Republicans have set: American workers have given us consistently rising productivity. They’ve worked harder and produced more. What did they get in return? Declining wages, less than ¼ as many new jobs as in the previous eight years, smaller health care and pension benefits, rising poverty and the biggest increase in income inequality since the 1920s. American families by the millions are struggling with soaring health care costs and declining coverage. I will never forget the parents of children with autism and other severe conditions who told me on the campaign trail that they couldn’t afford health care and couldn’t qualify their kids for Medicaid unless they quit work or got a divorce. Are these the family values the Republicans are so proud of? What about the military families pushed to the breaking point by unprecedented multiple deployments? What about the assault on science and the defense of torture? What about the war on unions and the unlimited favors for the well connected? What about Katrina and cronyism?
America can do better than that. And Barack Obama will. But first we have to elect him.
The choice is clear. The Republicans will nominate a good man who served our country heroically and suffered terribly in Vietnam. He loves our country every bit as much as we all do. As a Senator, he has shown his independence on several issues. But on the two great questions of this election, how to rebuild the American Dream and how to restore America’s leadership in the world, he still embraces the extreme philosophy which has defined his party for more than 25 years, a philosophy we never had a real chance to see in action until 2001, when the Republicans finally gained control of both the White House and Congress. Then we saw what would happen to America if the policies they had talked about for decades were implemented.
They took us from record surpluses to an exploding national debt; from over 22 million new jobs down to 5 million; from an increase in working family incomes of $7,500 to a decline of more than $2,000; from almost 8 million Americans moving out of poverty to more than 5 and a half million falling into poverty – and millions more losing their health insurance.
Now, in spite of all the evidence, their candidate is promising more of the same: More tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans that will swell the deficit, increase inequality, and weaken the economy. More band-aids for health care that will enrich insurance companies, impoverish families and increase the number of uninsured. More going it alone in the world, instead of building the shared responsibilities and shared opportunities necessary to advance our security and restore our influence.
They actually want us to reward them for the last eight years by giving them four more. Let’s send them a message that will echo from the Rockies all across America: Thanks, but no thanks. In this case, the third time is not the charm.
My fellow Democrats, sixteen years ago, you gave me the profound honor to lead our party to victory and to lead our nation to a new era of peace and broadly shared prosperity.
Together, we prevailed in a campaign in which the Republicans said I was too young and too inexperienced to be Commander-in-Chief. Sound familiar? It didn’t work in 1992, because we were on the right side of history. And it won’t work in 2008, because Barack Obama is on the right side of history.
His life is a 21st Century incarnation of the American Dream. His achievements are proof of our continuing progress toward the “more perfect union” of our founders’ dreams. The values of freedom and equal opportunity which have given him his historic chance will drive him as president to give all Americans, regardless of race, religion, gender, sexual orientation or disability, their chance to build a decent life, and to show our humanity, as well as our strength, to the world.
We see that humanity, that strength, and our future in Barack and Michelle Obama and their beautiful children. We see them reinforced by the partnership with Joe Biden, his wife Jill, a dedicated teacher, and their family.
Barack Obama will lead us away from division and fear of the last eight years back to unity and hope. If, like me, you still believe America must always be a place called Hope, then join Hillary, Chelsea and me in making Senator Barack Obama the next President of the United States.
** A VERY BRIEF PREVIEW OF AN UPCOMING COLUMN ON BILL CLINTON. Just prior to Clinton’s big speech.
I think, given what I know about McCain’s strategy, that Bill Clinton can play a very big role in Barack Obama’s election.
And wouldn’t it be ironic, given the confluence of McCain strategic imperatives and Bill Clinton’s appeal, if after all the fighting and odd behavior and recrimination, that he turned out to play a crucial role in Obama’s election?
** 3:48 PM PACIFIC: OBAMA WINS DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION BY ACCLAMATION. For stagecraft and state press purposes, the Democratic national convention went through a partial roll call vote, marked by the great majority of Hillary Clinton delegates going on record as voting for Barack Obama. With the vote count at 1550 for Obama and 341 for Clinton, Clinton herself appeared on the convention floor from the midst of the New York delegation — after New Mexico yielded to Chicago Mayor Richard Daley in Obama’s Illinois delegation, who in turn yielded to New York — and moved for Obama’s nomination by acclamation.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, taking over for roll call conductor DNC Secretary Alice Germond, (whose campaign for California Democratic Party chair I managed more than a few years ago), conducted the voice vote and declared Obama the Democratic presidential nomination. The freshman senator will formally accept the nomination tomorrow night in a speech at Denver’s NFL stadium, Invesco Field.
Obama is now officially the first political figure of African descent to win a major party nomination to be the head of government of an advanced industrial nation.
** MOUNTAIN WEST BATTLEGROUND POLLS: OBAMA LEADS IN NEVADA AND NEW MEXICO, TIES IN COLORADO. ALSO LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA. Time and CNN have new polls in four battleground states: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. The Keystone State has been heavily polled, and this one shows the typical Barack Obama lead over John McCain, in this case, 48% to 43%.
In Nevada, Obama leads McCain, 49-44. In New Mexico, Obama leads McCain, 53-40. In Colorado, the two are tied, with McCain at 47% and Obama at 46%.
If Obama wins all four of these states, he probably wins the the White House.
** 2 PM PACIFIC UPDATE: OBAMA ARRIVES IN DENVER, MCCAIN FOCUSES ON VEEP. With Hillary Clinton having just released her delegates, Barack Obama has just arrived in Denver. He isn’t scheduled to appear at the convention, but might do an impromptu drop-by.
Meanwhile, John McCain is in northern Arizona, finalizing the selection of his vice president. McCain will introduce his running mate on Friday at a rally in Dayton, Ohio. Then the new twosome will tour Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
** HILLARY MEETING WITH HER DELEGATES. At the lunch hour, Hillary Clinton is meeting with 2000 of her delegates and alternates at the Colorado Convention Center — which is not the DNC site — and is formally releasing them from their pledges. Which, of course, she had already signaled, as I reported over the weekend.
This morning, Hillary and Bill Clinton met with 300 of their top fundraisers at the historic Brown Palace Hotel. Lots of hugs and sentiment. And urgings to support Barack Obama.
** DNC3. Today’s big events now that, as I told you over the weekend, there will be no melodrama around a presidential roll call vote: The speeches by Obama veep Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton.
In the works … a column on Bill Clinton.
** NORTH CAROLINA POLL: MCCAIN BY 3. Barack Obama is keeping traditional red state North Carolina in play, trailing John McCain by only 45% to 42% in the latest Public Policy Polling survey. Incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole has fallen behind for the first time.
Obama is underperforming with Democrats. Namely, conservative white Dems. He needs a huge turnout of young white voterse and a huge turnout of black voters in order to actually win the state.
** NO ROLL CALL IN DENVER. The Democratic national convention delegates are voting at their hotels this morning. I expect a very big vote for Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton will be nominated in the convention hall later today, but after a short period of time, Obama will be nominated by acclamation.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama has a town hall meeting in Billings, Montana.
John McCain is in Phoenix, Arizona to shoot footage for TV ads and web videos and work on his convention acceptance speech.
Joe Biden accepts the Democratic vice presidential nomination tonight in Denver.
Bill Clinton speaks tonight in Denver, following a tough act in last night’s speech by Hillary Clinton.
** DISTRACT AND DETRACT: MCCAIN COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE D.N.C., AND HIMSELF. While the Democrats continue rolling out their convention and the Obama-Biden ticket, Team McCain is playing it tough, trying to disrupt Barack Obama’s storyline at most turns of the media cycle. Free from the no doubt horrifying responsibility to run positive TV ads during the Olympics after it was brought to their attention that John McCain is the only one ever to have run negative ads, the campaign is back to its all-attack ways.
McCain’s fast and tough new campaign, under new campaign director Steve Schmidt — who I know very well from his direction of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s landslide re-election and profiled here — is making a real race of this, when it shouldn’t be. Schmidt believes in winning or at least muddying the waters at every phase of the news cycle. Incidentally, there is no reason why Schmidt’s tactics can’t be used against McCain. The media, mind you, is not going to change. … From my new column.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING ON CALIFORNIA BUDGET. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger speaks about the chronic California budget crisis this morning at an event hosted by local government groups at the Los Angeles County administrative center in downtown LA.
Schwarzenegger will then fly to Sacramento for private meetings in and around the Capitol. Democratic legislators are gone from Denver now, and it looks like Republicans legislators will be out of St. Paul next week. Though some are planning to be there.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $118 per barrel. Up a bit from yesterday on fear of extreme weather in the Gulf of Mexico.
The drop of over $31 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
Michelle Obama, appearing last night at the Democratic National Convention, sans horns.
** HILLARY SAVES THE DAY FOR THE DEMS. Although the Democratic convention’s secondary speakers picked it up some today in crafting the “contrast” with John McCain, they were largely ignored by the press and the ever-chattering talking heads of cable news.
And after former Virginia Governor Mark Warner’s keynote address, it appeared that half the convention might pass with McCain escaping unscathed.
Warner ran for awhile for president before dropping out to take on a sure shot election in November replacing Virginia’s retiring senator, John Warner. Mark Warner gave a speech about the future vs. the past, and pushed a post-partisan theme. Now, readers now that the future vs. the past them is right up my alley. And I’ve certainly written a lot about post-partisanship.
But this is a party convention. In a time when the Republican brand is in the dumpster. There’s not much risk in wrapping it around John McCain like a toga. And even if one is not a union hall firebreather, which Warner certainly is not, you can take the future/past frame, select several 60% issues, and make your opponents look like the most backward characters imaginable. And devastate them with independents. All with a smile.
Warner didn’t do that. Before he was done, I was reading a recap of Mad Men.
Which put the success of the day all on Hillary Clinton. Who delivered. She did what a keynoter is supposed to do. What Obama himself did four years ago, though not so eloquently.
Clinton defined the nature of the choice in ways appealing to moderates and independents as well as partisan Democrats. And she took out after her old friend, John McCain.
I am honored to be here tonight. A proud mother. A proud Democrat. A proud American. And a proud supporter of Barack Obama. …
No way. No how. No McCain. …
Now, John McCain is my colleague and my friend. He has served our country with honor and courage. But we don’t need four more years . . . of the last eight years.
More economic stagnation …and less affordable health care.
More high gas prices …and less alternative energy.
More jobs getting shipped overseas …and fewer jobs created here.
More skyrocketing debt …home foreclosures …and mounting bills that are crushing our middle class families.
More war . . . less diplomacy.
More of a government where the privileged come first …and everyone else comes last.
John McCain says the economy is fundamentally sound. John McCain doesn’t think that 47 million people without health insurance is a crisis. John McCain wants to privatize Social Security. And in 2008, he still thinks it’s okay when women don’t earn equal pay for equal work.
With an agenda like that, it makes sense that George Bush and John McCain will be together next week in the Twin Cities. Because these days they’re awfully hard to tell apart.
The two politicians’ image scores don’t give McCain much room for growth. Obama is 61-39, favorable/unfavorable. McCain is 51-48, favorable/unfavorable.
** DISTRACT AND DETRACT: MCCAIN COUNTER-PROGRAMS THE D.N.C., AND HIMSELF.My new column.
** THE CLINTON MELODRAMA. Now for more of that hardy media perennial, the melodrama around the Clintons. Hillary speaks tonight at the convention, along with the ostensible keynoters, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. While there are hard feelings between the Obama and Clinton camps, she has, as I reported over the weekend, released her delegates. There won’t be a full roll call tonight. She’ll concede at a certain point, and that will be that.
Meanwhile, two big Clinton backers spoke to the California delegation meeting this morning — Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (whose support was key to Clinton winning the Ohio primary and is key to Obama winning the state in November, and New York Governor David Paterson. Their big message? Unity and moving forward with Obama.
** SCHWARZENEGGER OPENS SMALL PATH THROUGH BILLS BLOCKADE. As part of his pressure tactics on a recalcitrant Legislature around the chronic California budget crisis, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger instituted a bills blockade, insisting he won’t sign new legislation till the budget is done. This morning, he opened up a small path through his blockade, for a a few select issues that need to go on the November ballot.
Writing to the four legislative leaders, Schwarzenegger said: The deadline for enacting measures for the November 2008 ballot is upon us. Any measures that must be placed on the November ballot must be acted on quickly. There are four measures that fall into this category: a measure that makes critical changes to the high-speed rail bond already slated to appear on the November ballot; a measure to allow the state to improve the performance of the Lottery, which is critical to the budget negotiations now underway; legislation to establish a rainy-day fund and reform our budget process; and a general obligation bond measure to address the mounting state’s water crisis. I urge you to send me these measures that must be placed on the November ballot immediately.
** QUINNIPIAC POLLS: SPLIT DECISIONS IN BATTLEGROUND STATES. The new Quinnipiac polls of three key battleground states — Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida — contains mixed tidings for both Barack Obama and John McCain, and signs of slippage for Obama. Since 1960, no one has been elected president without winning two of these trhee states.
Obama had the lead in all three states at the end of July. That’s changed. In Pennsylvania, it’s Obama, 49-42 (Obama’s lead holding steady there). In Ohio, it’s Obama by an eyelash, 44-43. In Florida, it’s McCain, 47-43.
Voters in all three states say they want a Democratic president. But they have doubt about Obama. And they still see McCain as more than a regular Republican.
It will be interesting to see if the hits on McCain start coming today at the Democratic national convention. That was the missing element in last night’s presentation.
The Quinnipiac poll director comments: “Sen. Obama needs to close the sale with voters who want a Democrat, but because of Sen. McCain’s strength at this point, they don’t want this Democrat,” said Brown. “Much of the reason for this disparity is that Sen. McCain is drawing support from voters who say they don’t want a Republican in the White House.
“In fact, McCain is running an average of 9 percentage points ahead of the ‘generic Republican.’ Whether this reflects Obama’s weakness or McCain’s strength, the effect has been to make a close race out of a campaign many initially expected to be an easy Democratic win.
“If Obama picked Sen. Joseph Biden to solidify his foreign affairs credentials, he did so with good reason. By wide margins voters - even some Obama supporters - trust McCain more to handle terrorism and international problems. By smaller margins, Obama still is viewed as best able to fix the economy, which voters overwhelmingly see as the most important issue in the election.”
“The electorate is split by gender and age. The gender gap is not new; Democrats have been winning among women and losing men for decades. But it’s larger than in some recent elections and that is because of the white vote - since Obama is going to get virtually all the African American vote, male or female. But the large age gap is new. This could be the first generational election in recent history.”
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Missouri. He holds a discussion at a town hall on domestic policy in Kansas City.
John McCain is in Arizona and California. He addresses the American Legion convention in Phoenix and has a fundraiser in San Diego.
Ted Kennedy, introduced by his niece Caroline Kennedy, made a dramatic appearance last night at the Democratic National Convention.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol today, focusing on the chronic California budget crisis. He appeared yesterday at John McCain’s Sacramento fundraiser, but did not speak or take questions.
First Lady Maria Shriver is in Denver for the Democratic national convention, prominently shown on-screen when her great friend Caroline Kennedy introduced their uncle, Senator Ted Kennedy.
Schwarzenegger is scheduled to be the first speaker in prime time opening next week’s Republican national convention in St. Paul. But if the state budget has not been adopted, he won’t be going, even though next Monday is Labor Day and the Legislature will almost certainly not be in session.
** “NEW COLD WAR” LEAVES VOTERS COOL BUT SHOWS OBAMA’S NEED. Given how tentative Barack Obama is in discussing geopolitics, his running mate is unusually important. But there’s some good news for Obama with regard to John McCain’s New Cold War rhetoric. If he and his team can engage successfully with the Vietnam War hero.
McCain’s hot rhetoric in the wake of the Russia-Georgia War — “We are all Georgians,” which of course hasn’t done a thing for Georgians — isn’t catching on. But McCain is still seen as the national security/geopolitics maven.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s plans are working and there are some bad repercussions for US policy coming down the pike. After a visit to Moscow by Syria’s president, Russia may be getting a naval base in Syria. And sending a task force with an aircraft carrier and subs to the Mediterranean, all the better to bollix up US strategy in the Middle East. And oil power Kazakhstan, not to be confused with the Borat fantasy, is moving under Moscow’s umbrella. … Friday’s column from my HuffPost blog.
** DARK KNIGHT AMERICA. All the hyperpartisan spin aside, here is where we are in a deeper cultural sense. The Dark Knight ends up in much the same place we find ourselves today. Bereft of a clearcut hero. Having narrowly survived a fundamental assault against our essential selves. And wondering what comes next. … From my other blog.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The drop of over $31 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
John McCain’s campaign touts this former Democratic convention delegate in a new TV ad which is apparently airing nowhere other than the cable shows which choose to play it.
** DEMS’ OPENING NIGHT. A very good speech by Michelle Obama, following Caroline Kennedy’s remarks to the convention, the Ken Burns documentary, and the semi-surprise appearance of Senator Ted Kennedy.
Michelle Obama, the likely next first lady, gave a strong and appealing speech. She looked great, sounded sympathetic, and gave the lie to our friends on the far right with their constant trope that she is an angry anti-American.
What did not happen tonight was the politically necessary definition of John McCain as a third term for George W. Bush. That’s not how the Western senator sees it, naturally, but given the tenor of his now relentlessly negative campaign, he should not be surprised by how he is portrayed.
This was more of a party unity night — the Kennedys, and many tears — and a definitional night for the Obamas and their cute kids. Incidentally, I’ve heard a lot from folks on the far right about the demonization of Michelle Obama, how she supposedly hates America, was a bad writer at Princeton, yada yada.
But these are folks who said that this would be Jimmy Carter Night in Denver. (Clue: He’s not there, and in any event, is far more popular than Dick Cheney.) And have gone on and on about a fantasy version of Michelle Obama and her purported “whitey” comments that was actually taken from a very bad novel.
More to come, along with a column tomorrow on how Team McCain is trying to counter-program the DNC — and itself.
Michelle Obama: And you know, what struck me when I first met Barack was that even though he had this funny name, even though he’d grown up all the way across the continent in Hawaii, his family was so much like mine. He was raised by grandparents who were working class folks just like my parents, and by a single mother who struggled to pay the bills just like we did. Like my family, they scrimped and saved so that he could have opportunities they never had themselves. And Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you’re going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don’t know them, and even if you don’t agree with them.
And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children – and all children in this nation – to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.
** FROM CAROLINE KENNEDY’S REMARKS INTRODUCING TED KENNEDY.I am here tonight to pay tribute to two men who have changed my life and the life of this country: Barack Obama and Edward M. Kennedy. Their stories are very different, but they share a commitment to the timeless American ideals of justice and fairness, service and sacrifice, faith and family. …
Everywhere I go in this country, people tell me that Barack Obama is making them feel hopeful the way they did when my father was president. It’s partly the words he uses—words that remind us that we are all in this together and that we each have something to contribute to this country that has given us so much. But it’s the life he has led that is the true source of this inspiration—a life spent fighting for ordinary people in neighborhoods and courts, in the state senate and the United States Senate.
I have never had someone inspire me the way people tell me my father inspired them, but I do now, Barack Obama. And I know someone else who’s been inspired all over again by Senator Obama. In our family, he’s known as Uncle Teddy. More than any senator of his generation, or perhaps any generation, Teddy has made life better for people in this country and around the world.
For 46 years, he has been so much more than just a senator for the people of Massachusetts. He’s been a senator for all who believe in a dream that’s never died. …
Not only has Teddy helped put the American dream within reach for so many families, he’s been a powerful force around the world for human rights and human dignity, for refugees and the dispossessed. He helped end apartheid in South Africa and bring peace to Northern Ireland. He’s been a leader on nuclear arms control. And he took a strong, early and courageous stand against the war in Iraq.
He is a man who always insists that America live up to her highest ideals, who always fights for what he knows is right and who is always there for others. I’ve seen it in my own life. No matter how busy he is, he never fails to find time for those in pain, those in grief or those who just need a hug. In our family, he has never missed a first communion, a graduation, or a chance to walk one of his nieces down the aisle.
He has a special relationship with each of us. And his 60 great nieces and nephews all know that the best cookies and the best laughs are always found at Uncle Teddy’s. Whether he is teaching us about sailing, about the Senate or about life, he has shown us how to chart our course, take the helm and sail against the wind. And this summer, as he faced yet another challenge, he and Vicki have taught us all about dignity, courage and the power of love.
In this campaign, Barack Obama has no greater champion. When he is president, he will have no stronger partner in the United States Senate. Now, it is my honor to introduce a tribute to Senator Edward M. Kennedy.
** OBAMA ASSASSINATION PLOT?Colorado police will discuss tomorrow the arrest of two men with high-powered rifles and sniper scopes — and methamphetamine — who may have planned to assassinate Democratic presidential frontrunner Barack Obama.
This, of course, is the nightmare scenario with regard to the first black man to get within hailing distance of winning the White House. And the negativity and hatred being whipped up around him.
** “STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES.” So we are many hours on from the announcement from the Iraqi government that it has secured an agreement from the US to withdraw its troops by the end of 2011. And, you know, it’s not a big story in the nitwit blogosphere and ADD cable news cycle.
This, actually, does not surprise me. But it does tell us a lot about the new media cycle. Which is quite like the old media cycle. Just faster. But certainly not smarter.
In fact, that is why the Democratic national convention is in Denver.
** CALIFORNIA LEGISLATIVE DEMOCRATS OUT OF THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION. Assembly Speaker Karen Bass has just called session for Wednesday and Thursday. Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata had previously announced that he would have the state Senate in session.
Assembly Democrats, who have not effectively grappled with the chronic state budget crisis yet, had toyed with rolling over to Denver, where many of them are delegates. Albeit mostly for defeated candidate Hillary Clinton. But it didn’t look like a good idea. Especially since they were going to be drawing per diem payments for the week …
** GET YOUR ANTONIO BOBBLEHEAD. I’m told he’s not running for governor of California in 2010, but there is a bobblehead of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — one of four national chairs of the defeated Hillary Clinton for President campaign — on sale at the Democratic national convention in Denver.
Villaraigosa, incidentally, is not speaking to the convention. There’s a story behind this, naturally, and we’ll get to it on NWN …
** HILLARY CLINTON RELEASING HER DELEGATES. Let me repeat yesterday afternoon’s item, which the AP later picked up on.
According to a well-informed source, Hillary Clinton is releasing her delegates from their pledge to vote for her at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Clinton herself, as a super-delegate, will be voting for Barack Obama.
So much for a much bandied-about fantasy of a close vote between Obama and Clinton.
The Morning Column: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
With the highest-rated Olympics in television history over, and political nerds pretending that voters were really paying attention to politics, the first of two back-to-back national conventions/infomercials begins.
The Democrats convene today in Denver, with Barack Obama up an eyelash in the polls over where he was a week ago. Meanwhile, I’m-not-a-celebrity John McCain appears once again tonight on The Tonight Show. We’ll see how Jay handles the question of how many houses McCain’s super-rich wife Cindy owns. I think this guy has been on Leno more than Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Anyway, a big week for Obama and his new vice president, Senate Foreign Relations chairman Joe Biden. Following Biden’s totally unsurprising Saturday roll-out, they won’t appear together again until Thursday night, when Obama addresses a crowd of 80,000 at Denver’s football stadium. The pair drew a crowd of 35,000 in sweltering Springfield, Illinois, on Saturday.
Meanwhile, as you see below, Obama is in battleground Iowa today. Yesterday he was in Wisconsin. Later in the week, he goes to Missouri, Montana, and Colorado.
For his part, McCain is pursuing a twofold strategy. Distract. And detract. I’ll explain it all in a forthcoming column.
The fundamentals in this race have not changed for the better for McCain. And with the Iraqi government announcing that it has agreed to a timeline for US withdrawal from Iraq — with the Bush/Cheney White House — the news has gotten worse for the Republican candidate. See my flash item below.
While McCain was right about the Iraq surge, the war remains quite unpopular and his hardcore stance against a withdrawal timeline looks like an outlier opinion.
So he is left with an essentially negative campaign. Which he has been executing rather well since our old NWN friend Steve Schmidt took over as campaign director. Notwithstanding his other big-name client, Arnold Schwarzenegger — whose endorsement was a key clincher for McCain’s primary campaign — uttering various dissents with the McCain campaign’s oil policy.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Iowa. He has a “One Nation” town hall meeting in Davenport. That’s a new theme, by the way.
John McCain is in Arizona and California. He appears, once again, on The Tonight Show in California. McCain has a press conference at a high school in Phoenix. He has private fundraisers in Sacramento and Los Angeles. And he tapes his latest Jay Leno appearance in Burbank. No other candidate has more late nigth show appearances than McCain. Can you say “celebrity?”
** “NEW COLD WAR” LEAVES VOTERS COOL BUT SHOWS OBAMA’S NEED. Given how tentative Barack Obama is in discussing geopolitics, his running mate is unusually important. But there’s some good news for Obama with regard to John McCain’s New Cold War rhetoric. If he and his team can engage successfully with the Vietnam War hero.
McCain’s hot rhetoric in the wake of the Russia-Georgia War — “We are all Georgians,” which of course hasn’t done a thing for Georgians — isn’t catching on. But McCain is still seen as the national security/geopolitics maven.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s plans are working and there are some bad repercussions for US policy coming down the pike. After a visit to Moscow by Syria’s president, Russia may be getting a naval base in Syria. And sending a task force with an aircraft carrier and subs to the Mediterranean, all the better to bollix up US strategy in the Middle East. And oil power Kazakhstan, not to be confused with the Borat fantasy, is moving under Moscow’s umbrella. … Friday’s column from my HuffPost blog.
** DARK KNIGHT AMERICA. All the hyperpartisan spin aside, here is where we are in a deeper cultural sense. The Dark Knight ends up in much the same place we find ourselves today. Bereft of a clearcut hero. Having narrowly survived a fundamental assault against our essential selves. And wondering what comes next. … From my other blog.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Sacramento, where he will have private conversations in and around the Capitol, mostly centering on the chronic California budget crisis.
His recuperation from athroscopic knee surgery for a workout injury is proceeding without a hitch. So to speak.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The drop of over $33 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
World record-shatterer Usain Bolt and the Jamaican sprinters dominated the Olympics track and field championships as the US team mostly disappointed.
** HILLARY CLINTON RELEASING HER DELEGATES. According to a well-informed source, Hillary Clinton is releasing her delegates from their pledge to vote for her at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Clinton herself, as a super-delegate, will be voting for Barack Obama.
So much for a much bandied-about fantasy of a close vote between Obama and Clinton.
** OLYMPICS THOUGHTS. I’m a huge Olympics fan. And one of my little rituals as a one-time track guy is to run a time trial on the same day as the 4 x 100 meter relay. My experience ended up better than the American team(s), in the sense that I met my goal. The US men and women both dropped the baton in the prelims — in an amazing display that saved them from losing in the Olympic finals — whereas I merely dropped my chassis in the form of what has turned out to be a very sore lumbar area. Chalk it up to advancing age, and spending far too much time sitting looking and typing in front of computer screens.
So on to some thoughts on the Games. A fantastic Olympiad. Clearly a major marker in China’s emergence as a great power on the global stage. Spectacular venues. Spectacular performance by Chinese athletes, who bested our Americans in the gold medal hunt though losing in the overall medal count.
Russia, already asserting itself again as a global military and energy power, was third in the Olympic medals count.
Michael Phelps. What to say. Eight gold medals. Seven world records. The one performance not a world record was a victory by 0.01 seconds. Which I can’t show you because NBC won’t allow it. More about NBC’s obnoxious coverage in a moment. Phelps shades the great Mark Spitz of 1972 Munich Olympics fame — the same Games scarred by the Islamic terrorist murders of Israeli Olympians — as the greatest Olympic swimmer in history. Barely. Although part of me says Spitz could beat him with today’s techniques and high tech swim suits. He’s certainly more articulate.
But is Phelps the greatest athlete of the Games? As a former age-group swimmer, I say yes. As a former track guy, I say no.
That other choice would be the amazing sprinter Usain Bolt of Jamaica. He won three gold medals, all in track world record fashion. Which happen to be among the most important world records around the globe. No one since Carl Lewis at the LA Olympics of ‘84 has won those three gold medals. And Lewis didn’t set any world records. Bolt is the first to set world records in the 100 and 200 at the Olympics. And naturally, the first to do it in the 4 x 100 relay, as well. The guy just turned 22. Uh-oh.
100-meter dash. 200-meter dash. 400-meter relay.
Unlike the swimming records, track records don’t fall by the bushel-full. Swimming records require more endurance. Track records require more pounding. Nobody gets injured in a swim meet. In track … well, meet 2007 world 100-meter dash and 200-meter dash champ Tyson Gay, American’s great hope for these Games. Who didn’t actually make a final in the 2008 Olympics after hurting his hamstring in the national meet.
Also, swimming has more events available. I could construct a schedule in which Usain Bolt wins 7 gold medals. To his easy world record wins in the 100-meter dash, 200-meter dash, and 400-meter relay … add the 60-meter dash (a world indoor champs event), the 200-meter low hurdles (an old-time event), the 4 x 200-meter relay (Jamaica owned the sprints), and the sprint medley relay. All have equivalent swimming events.
So it evens out. Call Phelps and Bolt the co-MVPs of these spectacular Olympics. Jamaica, incidentally, which dominated the Olympic spring events amongs both men and women, is one one-hundredth the population of the US.
Now, the US men’s basketball team achieved redemption over past failures by absolutely dominating the rest of the world. NBA’s stars like LA Lakers great Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade of the Miami Heat joined with other stars to play as a team and destroy every opponent they faced. The US women’s team also dominated. As did, after an opening misstep, a new generation US women’s soccer team.
There were many other great American performances.
But the rest of the world, especially China and Russia, is closer to America. Which actually reflects the emerging balance of power.
One other thought about the Olympics. NBC achieved the biggest ratings for its Olympics coverage in American history. (Uh, so much for all the inside baseball coverage of politics during the Games …) But, frankly, as much as I appreciated seeing it on my TV, I hated NBC’s coverage.
That is because I already knew what was happening.For the events most important to me, MANY HOURS IN ADVANCE.
I knew about Usain Bolt’s utterly spectacular world record performances in the 100-meter dash (he broke his own record despite celebrating 15 meters before the finish), 200-meter dash (breaking Michael Johnson’s record which many thought would last till 2040), and 4 x 100-meter relay (shattering America’s record which many thought would last another decade), 12 to 16 hours before NBC got around to airing them.
In the cyber age, this is preposterous and unconscionable coverage. Equally preposterous and unconscionable is NBC’s practice of knocking down all full-motion video depiction of these amazing events.
ESPN is talking about showing these events live in 2012 with the London Olympics. Let’s hope they get the chance to take Olympics coverage out of the 1960s.
** SUNDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Wisconsin. He visited a Lutheran church and is holding a barbeque in Eau Claire. Obama is hitting key Midwest and Mountain West states heading into his Thursday acceptance of the Democratic presidential nomination in Denver.
John McCain is off the campaign trail. His campaign has another attack ad out on the Obama veep pick, this one charging that Hillary Clinton was left off the ticket because she spoke the truth. Unclear where it’s airing on a paid basis.
The Dark Knight is clearly the movie of the year.
DARK KNIGHT AMERICA *
A lot of chatter about veeps, much more focus on the Olympics. There’s one thing we do know about where America is now.
When America is in a dark mood, Batman pictures do well. America is in a very dark mood. As we note pretty much every day on my New West Notes.
The presidential candidates are trying to punch through the Olympics, and a deep summer malaise, prior to their back-to-back national convention infomercials.
With very limited success for all the effort. One thing they know they can’t alter is the national mood. The national mood is dark. And in this milieu, The Dark Knight, sequel to the 2005 franchise reboot Batman Begins, is shattering box office records. Fastest to $100 million. Fastest to $200 million and $300 million. Fastest to $400 million, over twice as fast as the previous record.
The Dark Knight has continued and expanded upon the recent vogue of superhero movies. After last weekend, the picture, released on July 18th, has rocketed to number two on the all-time domestic box office list. With a stunning $475 million today, it’s second only to Titanic.
John McCain says this is his favorite movie. But does he really get it? I happen to know that a number of his top people have not seen the picture.
Naturally, lots of explanations are offered for the success of this dark and violent movie — hardly a date movie — moving into titanic territory. The Dark Knight is a darkly epic comic book picture starring the late Heath Ledger as an anarchistic terrorist calling himself The Joker, the always excellent Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne/Batman, and an all-star cast of actors filled with Oscar winners and indie film faves. It’s expertly directed by Christopher Nolan, with hugely expensive set piece action sequences and plenty of memorable lines.
Then there is the late Heath Ledger’s performance as the Joker. As much as I enjoyed Jack Nicholson in the same role 19 years ago, Ledger is far more impactful. Fittingly, like the shark in Jaws, which he greatly resembles in a metaphorical sense, the Joker has his own musical motif signaling danger. An electronically twisted one-note affair from Hans Zimmer that is notably unsettling.
Perhaps all this is why Dark Knight quickly roared past such recent blockbusters as The Lord of the Rings movies, the Star Wars prequels, and the Spiderman and Pirates of the Caribbean franchises, not to mention this year’s return of Indiana Jones, finally passing the much re-issued original Star Wars last weekend.
But all that probably doesn’t account for the phenomenon that Dark Knight, suddenly in a tie for best movie of all time with The Godfather on the Internet Movie Database, has become.
Many on the right amusingly claim that Batman is a metaphor for George W. Bush. Or, heh, Dick Cheney.
Meanwhile, it has Aaron Eckhart as Bobby Kennedy-type District Attorney Harvey Dent, the shining knight of the picture. Not a Bushie in sight. And somebody as the bin Laden analogue, naturally.
While some on the left say it’s really a liberal movie about the problems of the war on terror. That would be, ah, a liberal movie about a vigilante who nonetheless triumphs in the end.
The Dark Knight “takes the viewer on a sometimes traumatic but ultimately redemptive and humanistic journey towards a post-9/11 ethic”, writes Michael Dudley, of the Institute of Urban Studies, on AlterNet.
Kind of like, say, that noted liberal Dirty Harry. Count me as a Callahan fan. He’s no lefty, that is for sure.
More darkly on the left, it’s suggested that Batman actually attracts the evil he ends having to destroy. That Batman is happy to beat a confession out of the Joker, as American soldiers and agents have done at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib. And even more sardonically, that the people of Gotham Batman thinks have opted to “believe in good” actually vote to blow up hundreds of people in order to save themselves. Batman wins in the end, but at what cost?
At much the same cost encountered by the heroes and heroines in another middle film of a trilogy, The Empire Strikes Back.
While the claims from the left are wrong-headed or sardonic — which is not to say they are wrong — those from the right, which have gotten much bigger play, are unintentionally amusing.
“There seems to me no question that The Dark Knight is at some level a paean of praise to the fortitude and moral courage that has been shown by George W Bush in this time of terror and war,” conservative screenwriter Andrew Klavan wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “Like W, Batman is vilified and despised for confronting terrorists in the only terms they understand. Like W, Batman sometimes has to push the boundaries of civil rights to deal with an emergency, certain that he will re-establish those boundaries when the emergency is past.”
Kyle Smith, film critic for the New York Post, says that Batman isn’t Bush, he’s Cheney! “Batman isn’t popular, partly because he’s a zealot and partly because he doesn’t bother to explain himself to the press. He is independently wealthy, having spent years as the head of an industrial company. His methods are disturbing, his operations bathed in darkness. He is misunderstood, mistrusted, endlessly pursued by the attack dogs of the night. And he lives in an undisclosed location. Isn’t it obvious? Batman is Dick Cheney with hair.”
What’s obvious is that the Joker is a much smarter and more capable — not to mention far funnier — version of Osama bin Laden. And that Bruce Wayne/Batman, for all his vigilante ruthlessness, is a much more scrupulous and competent character than the current cast of characters in La Maison Blanche.
Let’s go through the movie without spoiling it entirely for those few of you who haven’t seen it.
The Rendition. Bruce Wayne, in his guise as Batman, joins forces with Bobby Kennedyesque new DA Harvey Dent and good guy cop Jim Gordon to crack down on the Mob that has corrupted Gotham’s politics, journalism, and legal system. They decide to go after all those ill-gotten gains. Which are largely secreted offshore, where the legal system can’t get at them.
But as the Joker notes when he offers himself to the Mob bosses as their most unlikely of contractors, “Batman has no jurisdiction.” In a dramatic action totally outside the law, Bruce Wayne kidnaps the Mob’s financial mastermind, who is intimidated into giving up his clients.
The Big Roll-Up. With this intel, gotten outside the normal system, the organized crime system of Gotham is taken down in one fell swoop.
The Joker Empowered. As a result, the Mob hires the Joker to take down Batman. But the now empowered Joker, with huge resources at his command, has more in mind than that.
The Joker Creates Havoc. With a few well-placed blows, he creates havoc in Gotham. He’s not out to do what the Mob hired him to do, i.e., kill Batman. He’s out to unravel Gotham’s systems themselves, including the organized crime system. And he’s out to do something more.
The Forces of Order Escalate. As the Joker anticipates, Dent, Gordon and Wayne escalate in their efforts to bring him in, going further over the line as they become more frantic.
Batman Embraces Torture. Finally, Batman embraces torture, something he’d urged against earlier. But unlike on, say, 24, where Jack Bauer always quickly learns the truth from his swift torture sessions, what Batman thinks he learns isn’t quite right. Tragically.
The Joker Rolls Back The Plans. In fact, the Joker has anticipated their moves. He has baited them into doing what he wants. Kind of like Al Qaeda embroiling the US in the Middle East.
Batman Creates The Surveillance State. As Bruce Wayne realizes that the Joker is playing them perfectly, he uses his corporation’s technowizardry to turn Gotham into a surveillance state. All geared to finding the Joker. Which prompts Wayne Enterprise’s CEO, unlike the CEOs of our telecom giants after 9/11, to balk at this intrusion into private lives.
“Beautiful. Unethical. Dangerous … This is WRONG,” intones Lucius Fox, played by the great Morgan Freeman, as he examines Wayne’s program. And unlike Bush and Cheney, Wayne insists that the surveillance will be for one purpose only, time limited.
In the end … well, I’m not going to give away the ending. Some of you have undoubtedly not yet seen the movie, which I highly recommend.
In the end, Batman wins. And he loses. The Joker loses. And he wins.
Let’s give the final quote to the Joker, as he runs it down for Batman. “You see, madness, as you know, is like gravity. All it takes is a little push.”
Does this really sound like a movie extolling the greatness of the Bush/Cheney White House in its war on terror?
Obviously not.
So the new Batman picture, for all its material success, ends in the same place as the current America, with the latter in rather less spectacular fashion.
Actually, without giving away the ending, The Dark Knight ends up in much the same place we find ourselves today.
Bereft of a clearcut hero. Having narrowly survived a fundamental assault against our essential selves. And wondering what comes next.
Both in terms of our attempts to protect ourselves against a threatening world. And in terms of our attempts to protect ourselves against our own worst instincts to protect ourselves.
John McCain’s attack ad against Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as his vice president. Unclear where it’s airing for paid showings.
** BIDEN SEEN AS MUCH LESS LIBERAL THAN OBAMA. The new Rasmussen poll, owned by Republican Scott Rasmussen, which tends to report higher unfavorable numbers than other polls, shows Joe Biden to be the best known of all the potential veeps in play on the Democratic side. He’s viewed favorably by 43%, unfavorably by 38%. (He’s only at 65% amongst Democrats, so the favorable can go up.)
Intriguingly, he is viewed as a liberal by only 41%, far less than the number which sees Obama as liberal. Obama is viewed as a liberal by 63%, in this sounding.
Now here is an interesting question: When was the last time John McCain was above 44%?
** SO IT’S JOE. Not a surprise. Most players and strategists in the Democratic Party felt that Joe Biden, first elected to the Senate in 1972, current chairman of Foreign Relations and former chairman of Judiciary, was the best choice amongst the names in play.
He’s a motormouth, to be sure, who can talk so much he’s bound to say something dumb, he earned the enmity of the far right by leading the fight against would-be Supreme Court Justice Robert Bork (look for lots of attacks from the talk radio/blog crowd), and he had that plagiarism thing when he tried to run for president in 1987. He kept quoting a passage from British Labor leader Neil Kinnock, and one or two from Bobby Kennedy, which he usually attributed. Naturally, his opponents found footage when he neglected to do that.
The McCain campaign, of course, blasted the pick. But Republican Senators Dick Lugar and Chuck Hagel praised it.
That said, he’s a good pick. He’s a strong debater and a very good platform speaker. He’s smart, funny, charming, energetic and very knowledgeable. He’s Irish-Catholic, a native of Pennsylvania though he reps Delaware, relates well with white working class folks and is a longtime labor favorite. He’s also been strong on feminist issues. He has a compelling personal story, which you’ll hear a lot about, his son the state attorney general is deploying to Iraq shortly with his National Guard unit, and so on.
More to the point, he knows geopolitics very well. Has traveled the world extensively, and just got back from a mission to Georgia, where he was requested by the beleaguered young president who played right in to Russia’s hands. He’s been right on Afghanistan for years — next week I’ll run video of my asking him about Afghanistan — and has been predicting for a long time that Pakistan was going south.
I explained in my column yesterday, linked below, what Obama needs in a running mate.
He’s also a good-humored attack dog with a strong bite, as Rudy Giuliani learned to his chagrin last year … “A noun, a verb, and 9/11.”
More to say later.
** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chicago and Springfield, Illinois. He appears at noon Pacific time with his vice president pick, Senate Foreign Relations chairman Joe Biden of Delaware at the historic Old State Capitol where he announced his candidacy in February 2007.
John McCain is at his ranch in Sedona, Arizona, off the campaign trail.
** “NEW COLD WAR” LEAVES VOTERS COOL BUT SHOWS OBAMA’S NEED. Given how tentative Barack Obama is in discussing geopolitics, his running mate is unusually important. But there’s some good news for Obama with regard to John McCain’s New Cold War rhetoric. If he and his team can engage successfully with the Vietnam War hero.
McCain’s hot rhetoric in the wake of the Russia-Georgia War — “We are all Georgians,” which of course hasn’t done a thing for Georgians — isn’t catching on. But McCain is still seen as the national security/geopolitics maven.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s plans are working and there are some bad repercussions for US policy coming down the pike. After a visit to Moscow by Syria’s president, Russia may be getting a naval base in Syria. And sending a task force with an aircraft carrier and subs to the Mediterranean, all the better to bollix up US strategy in the Middle East. And oil power Kazakhstan, not to be confused with the Borat fantasy, is moving under Moscow’s umbrella. … Yesterday’s column from my other blog.
** DARK KNIGHT AMERICA. All the hyperpartisan spin aside, here is where we are in a deeper cultural sense. The Dark Knight ends up in much the same place we find ourselves today. Bereft of a clearcut hero. Having narrowly survived a fundamental assault against our essential selves. And wondering what comes next. … From my other blog.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in LA, where he will have no public events this weekend. His recuperation from athroscopic knee surgery for a workout injury is proceeding without a hitch. So to speak.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed on Friday at $114.59 per barrel. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
The drop of over $33 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
