Imad Mughniyah has reportedly gone to his virgins. I say “reportedly” because you never really know with him. He has changed his appearance in the past, even, I am told, his fingerprints, and is altogether capable of feigning his death. As Tom Jocelyn has tirelessly reported, he was in cahoots with al Qaeda, and moved between Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Iraq. I have long believed he was the key Iranian operative in Iraq, and his documented contacts with Zarqawi show that.
No surprise that he was in Damascus when destiny apparently claimed him. Hezbollah was a joint Iranian-Syrian operation in which the Iranians ran the organization and Syria provided the base, and logistical support. As I was the first to report, he flew with Iranian President Ahmadi-Nezhad to Damascus for high-level meetings with Bashar Assad and key Syrian military and intelligence officers a while back. So he had very high standing among the terror masters.
His bloody arms reached into South America, both in the creation of Hezbollah bases and in the murderous operations in Buenos Aires in the mid-nineties that led to his indictment by the Argentine Government. And I have no doubt that he was involved in setting up terror cells in the United States. Remember that he was both the operational chieftain of Hezbollah and a high-ranking officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force.
His death would be a major blow to the ability of the terror masters to wage war against us; while there are always evil people eager to kill us, it will not be easy to replace Mughniyah.
There will be a lot of speculation about his killers. Hezbollah has already accused the Israelis, which is what you’d expect them to say. But there are many others who hated Mughniyah, ranging from various Lebanese and Saudi groups who held him responsible for the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, to anti-Iranian and anti-Syrian groups, especially some of the Kurds, to our very own spooks and soldiers, who have long yearned for revenge against the man who organized the brutal murder of Robert Stethem, the suicide bombings against the U.S. Marines in Beirut, similar acts against U.S. diplomats and spooks at our Embassies in the same city, and of course Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, and the dreadful death-by-torture of our top spy in Beirut in the mid-1980s.
I doubt we did it. Indeed, I rather suspect that CIA was bound and determined NOT to go after Mughniyah, even though there was a bounty on his head. I know of several instances in which CIA vetoed proposals from well-placed people who claimed to be able to kill or capture Mughniyah, and I have spoken to government officials in Washington who were astonished at the Agency’s lack of vigor. Nonetheless, I have no doubt we will hear from several “experts” that it was a CIA operation.
Israel is more likely, and has a proven ability to operate in Damascus, although Olmert has denied any Israeli involvement. On the other hand, it may have been a joint operation involving a European intelligence service (the French, who were big supporters of Hariri, come to mind) and a local group, perhaps Lebanese Druse, perhaps Syrian and/or Iranian Kurds.
And of course there is also the possibility that the Iranians did it. Their proxy war against us in Iraq–of which Mughniyah was the supreme commander–is in ruin, and they may have decided that he had either lost his touch, or had gone over to the other side. This is not so fanciful as you might imagine. Remember that the Abu Nidal Organization, for many years the most feared terrorist group in the world, tore itself apart when the leader came to believe he had been betrayed by someone inside his organization. That was one of CIA’s greatest psychological operations, run by perhaps the last great American spymaster, Duane Clarridge.
Such things do happen. To be sure, they are more often the stuff of fiction, but sometimes life does imitate art.
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16 Comments
Mike:Purely of curiosity: does the Iraqi Government (or closely allied groupings) have the capability to have done this? They certainly have the interest….
Just idle wool-gathering.
ML:
Hard to imagine that the Iraqi Govt could have done this.
Feb 13, 2008 - 8:11 pm Ran:“Imad Mughniyah has reportedly gone to his virgins. I say “reportedly” because you never really know…” where Fred Thompson’s been. [According to IMAO, that’s been a big operation of Fred’s, aimed at destroying jihadi incentives.]
Feb 13, 2008 - 9:18 pm Nick Guariglia:Great day today. I’m betting it was the Israelis, and good for them. But you just can’t know something like this 100%. The Iran explaination could be true as well.
Is there open source intel. regarding his links with Zarqawi? I’d love to read those documents.
Feb 13, 2008 - 10:34 pm Chris:Great news! BZ to whoever was responsible. And thanks, Michael, for the background on this truly despicable human being.
Feb 13, 2008 - 11:56 pm Herschel Smith:I follow this up:
http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/02/14/assassination-of-imad-mughniyeh/
Your is the best analysis I have seen so far. Also, while you point out a number of potential perpetrators of this wonderful act, unfortunately, I agree with you. The CIA didn’t do it. Thanks Michael.
ML:
Everybody should read captain’s journal, one of the most informative and thoughtful blogs. Thanks for the kind words Herschel.
Feb 14, 2008 - 12:33 am lola:Good. One less problem. Slow but hopefully consistent these assassinations. It’s about time we scored some points.
Feb 14, 2008 - 2:04 am yikes:My money is Mossad.
Feb 14, 2008 - 8:28 am simone bellandi:Whomever it was, Thank You!
Let’s hope he burns in Hell for eternity.
Excuse, just to suggest you, but why don’t you try to turn on your oujia-board, asking him.
regards
Simone
ML:
I’m trying…lots of static
Feb 14, 2008 - 8:57 am El Jefe Maximo:Interesting the Hezzies are talking today about the perfidy of the purported Israeli attack on this monster across “closed borders” as if Syria was some kind of free sanctuary, and that if Israel and its backers want open war, they’ll get it.
Their comments seem less focused on the purported martyrdom of this bandit, as on what Hezbollah and its friends are going to do to their enemies.
I know the Israelis are good, and can operate in Damascus when they need to. But this guy was a high value target, presumably with guards and real security: his own, and the local police/inteligence establishment. The Israelis would have to risk a lot of assets to get him there. He might be worth it…but still.
So suppose nobody was in that car ? Or maybe Hezbollah found itself some “canned goods.” Maybe old Mughniyah’s laughing it up in a hotel or bunker someplace; or alternatively he’s a victim of some kind of internal faction fight. Is it possible the Hezzies did this themselves, as some kind of Gleiwitz Incident to justify some really horrible operation they’ve got laid on ?
My first guess would be to watch for trouble in Lebanon…or maybe with Americans and Israelis in Europe. I sure hope everybody’s buttoned up, and the responsible people are keeping an eye out.
ML:
Well, it is certainly possible, as I said, that it is a deception, but most likely it is true. And yes, everyone expects some sort of payback, altho most experts seem to think it will not be immediate; big terrorist operations take time to organize.
Feb 14, 2008 - 10:28 am OmegaPaladin:Mr. Ledeen,
Ran across this story on Pajamas Media. Was this just early speculation, or has this been borne out? Aman has a better record than our own CIA.
ML:
I don’t know if Mughniyah was involved in 9/11, or, for that matter, whether the Iranians were involved in some other way (there is no way Mughniyah could have been involved unless Tehran approved). But there is very good evidence showing the Hezbollah/al Qaeda links. It’s in “The Iranian Time Bomb” and in Tom Joscelyn’s booklet published by the Claremont Institute.
Feb 14, 2008 - 3:40 pm BRIAN HIGGINS:I didn’t do it, but I will take responsibility.
A rabbi and a priest get into a car crash. It is a horrible wreck and both cars are totaled.
Feb 14, 2008 - 3:48 pm Ira Zad:The rabbi gets out and says the priest “I think God wanted us to meet together and talk”
Priest “It would appear that way”
The rabbi says “just one minuet” and goes to the back of his car. After pulling a bottle of wine miraculously in pristine condition out of his trunk, he hands the bottle to the priest saying “I think God wanted us to come and have a drink together”
After the priest takes a heavy drink he tries to hand the bottle back to the rabbi, but the rabbi says “No, I think I’ll just wait in my car for the cops.”
It’s about bloody time!
This is huge news, and a huge blow to Islamic Republic of Terror in Iran: It’s like Hitler losing Hermann Goring for them.
Reportedly, Mughnyeh was coming out of an Iranian “school” to board his car when it blew up and sent him to hell on “permanent vacation”.
Iranian “FM”, Manuchehr Mottaki, immediately flew to Hezbollah HQ, and was seen literally holding Mughnyeh’s father’s hand at the funeral!
Let’s now give the Tehran regime continuous reasons to grieve…
Feb 15, 2008 - 3:10 pm FrumiousFalafel:I don’t see why people aren’t more sure that the Mossad was in fact responsible for this operation. First of all, the fact that Olmert denied it means nothing. It is de-facto policy for Israel to deny operations like this, regardless of whether they did it. The underlying idea being to inject ambiguity into the situation.
Secondly, many darker-skinned Israelis have penetrated Arab governments in the past — it could very well be that Syria has been penetrated — or even Iran.
Thirdly, and in answer to a previous poster: all the Israeli newspapers say that “Mugh” was a “higher-value target” than even Nasrallah(!) Now that is saying something. Nasrallah is utterly (and rightly) despised by every Israeli and right-thinking person in the world. So if Mugh. was actually of greater importance, then there is clearly a strong motive for the Mossad.
Finally, deterrence, whether “real” or “psychological” (really, the two are inseparable) is an extremely important part of the Israeli doctrine. Israel feels that it lost a large degree of deterrence with her enemies after the 2nd Lebanon war. I happen to think that that war will not be looked on as such a failure in the future (of Israel), but for now at least Israel feels a acute need to reestablish their deterrence.
The bombing of the Syrian Atomic-bomb plant was one major step, and this is a second. Thus I see it as highly likely that it indeed *was* the Mossad doing its part to help Israel regain her former deterrence.
Thanks for your article Mr. Ledeen, it was well written,
ML:
Thanks Frumious, I think Israel is the prime candidate too.
Feb 15, 2008 - 7:44 pm Joe:Important to remember here: a) The Israeli govt report citing IDF shortcomings in the 2006 clash with Hezbollah was released days prior to Mughniyeh’s death; perception of IDF weakeness, many believe, itself, poses a threat to Israel’s security via its bellicose neighbors — it would be a good political move to show quick strength/capability of Israel security forces (even denied) to restore condfidence; b) conspicuous dates/anniversaries on the calendar: Iranian Revolutionary Day was last weekend; today, 16 Feb, is the anniversary of the assassination of former Hezbollah leader, Abbas Musawi in 92. At any rate, good riddance Mughniyeh (if it’s true). Syrian govt verification that they were harboring Mughniyeh, who’s long been on the US terrorism list, should itself bring extra heat down on Syria for harboring terrorism.
Feb 16, 2008 - 9:28 am harry:From Meir Javedanfar’s “Mugniyeh Assassination”:
>>
Whomever had hold of Asgari probably knew all about Mugniyeh. Knew what he looked like, his hideouts, his routines. Asgari probably had contacts within Iran or Syria all the while too. Some “Western” intelligence unit could be American or European, I doubt it was Israeli here.
ML:
I don’t think anyone “recruited” Asgari; I think he made the decision by himself and then contacted whoever received him. I have no idea who that was, except that i doubt it was the U.S.
Certainly Asgari knows all about Mughniyah, and you may be right that he was the primary source of the information that led to the assassination. But it is also possible that the Iranians came to the conclusion–and I don’t know if it is right or wrong–that Mughniyah betrayed them. It is certainly true that Mughniyah failed them in Iraq. He was in charge there, and they have lost the battle of Iraq…
So while it is still likely that Israel killed him, there are, as I said, several other possibilities.
Feb 16, 2008 - 11:45 pm winston:Congrats. I know you always wanted this scumbag to die for the crimes he has done since 1980s…
ML:
i think every person of good will hated him. he was a real monster.
Feb 19, 2008 - 11:03 am